The Lions totaled 788 yards against the Bears 575, so any offensive edge ostensibly belongs to Detroit. But Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford has never won at Soldier Field. And he gets beat up a lot when he plays there.
He has been forced out of Bears games with knee (2009) and shoulder (2010) injuries. Last year he got into a fight with cornerback D.J. Moore after throwing one of his four interceptions and was fined 7,500. He was sacked five times in the 2009 game.
In the 2011 game two, the Lions turned the ball over six times total and Stafford was sacked twice, finishing with a 46.3 passer rating. It didnt matter that the Lions vastly out-gained the Bears; they lost the ball on their first two possessions in three of the four quarters.
And Detroit is 2-3 for a reason.
We havent put enough sevens on the board early in the game, thats for sure, Stafford said. We have a lot of yards early and often in game but havent put touchdowns on the board. Thats something were still working on and giving it everything weve got to try and get sevens early.
The 5,000 passing yards of Stafford last year really isnt the key in this matchup. Neither is All-World wideout Calvin Johnson for that matter. Stafford scored with a 73-yard pass to Calvin Johnson between safeties Chris Harris and Brandon Meriweather in the Detroit game last year. It was the last start for Meriweather and next-to-last for Harris, was released a couple weeks later.
The point there is that the Bears Stafford shredded last year are not the ones hell see Monday night. The safety play with Chris Conte and Major Wright has been solid behind a pass rush that has had three or more sacks in all but the Dallas game.
The Bears are unlikely to put up the two defensive and one return TD that keyed the win in Soldier Field last year. But either are the Lions likely to get an 88-yard rushing TD against a Bears front that is No. 1 in the NFL allowing just 65.8 yards per game. The Lions are 19th with 99.8 rushing yards per game and have not established a run game with Mikel Leshoure.
The Lions were able to blitz Philadelphia with a fourth-quarter spurt but the Bears are not the Eagles, and the Bears are allowing just 14.2 points per game.
Holding the Lions and a receiving corps of Johnson, Nate Burleson and Titus Young, plus tight ends Brandon Pettigrew and Tony Scheffler to fewer than 15 points will be a chore, and the Lions are scoring 25.2 on average.
But no team has scored more than Green Bays 23 on the Bears and it is difficult to see Stafford and Detroit topping that without a run game, which the Lions dont have.
Last year, they had a lot of offensive firepower, linebacker Lance Briggs said. This year, they still have that firepower but just lost some close games and won some close games, especially as of late. Theyre a dangerous team and we already know its going to be a battle. It always is. But its one we have to win.