Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Stock Watch

Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Stock Watch

By David Ferris
CSNChicago.com Contributor

Buy

Sergio Romo, RP, Giants: With Santiago Casilla doing everything he can to torch the Giants in the ninth inning, save chasers need to look at Romo, the dominant set-up man (0.75 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, better than a strikeout per inning). Bruce Bochy probably doesn't want to give Romo the complete baton in the ninth - Romo isn't ideally suited to pitch on consecutive days - but this looks like a bullpen that's about to blow up given how Casilla is collapsing. Also consider situational lefties Jeremy Affeldt and Javier Lopez as possible handshake vultures in deeper leagues.
Franklin Morales, SP, Red Sox: I'm not eager to use him against the Yankees on Saturday, especially in Fenway Park. Bobby Valentine didn't do fantasy owners any favors by taking Morales out of the Wednesday turn in Oakland, and Morales's cycle has been upset as well. But I love how the recycled lefty looked in his first three starts (especially 24 strikeouts versus just three walks) and I see him as a mixable arm for most assignments going forward. Don't sweat the Colorado starting experience too much; that extreme park is a graveyard for pitchers. Perhaps Morales is going to be a post-hype surprise in his second act.

Sell

Tim Lincecum, SP, Giants: A lot of analysts defend him through still-strong K9 rate, but that's partially tied to facing more hitters. On a per-batter basis, Lincecum's strikeouts are in decline. And I'm not going to give him a golden pass for what some term the "unlucky" strand rate - for all we know, he could be having mechanical trouble pitching from the stretch. There's also a school of thought that suggests Lincecum is struggling to land properly, perhaps due to physical issues. Plenty of theories to choose from. Add it all up and I'd be shocked if he posted a sub-4 ERA in the second half. Even if you have to sell low, I'm selling. Even if you can buy low, I'm not interested.

Jose Quintana, SP, White Sox: He makes a lot of his own luck by throwing strikes and hiding the ball well, but a 5.6 HRFB rate isn't likely to stick in a Chicago summer and Quintana's ground-ball profile is merely average. He's not going to fall off the table going forward but that 2.04 ERA is mostly smoke. Pay for something in the high-3s going forward, and look for other options if you're limited in starts or innings (since the strikeout rate is fairly tame).

Roy Oswalt, SP, Rangers: He was able to stop the Rockies (a dreadful offensive club on the road), but the Tigers and White Sox absolutely pounded him to the pavement. Big league hitters are now bating .422 against Oswalt, and it's mostly supported by a lofty line-drive rate. Normally you'd look at four walks against 16 strikeouts and consider a possible bounce-back, but the jet stream in Arlington (which is especially friendly to left-handed sluggers) is going to eat Oswalt alive. Even in deep mixers, you must do better than this.

Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, Indians: We live in a result-bias world, so the recent ERA drop has some people excited. But when you see 12 walks over Jimenez's last three turns, you realize that he's a long way from turning the corner and fixing those noisy mechanics. I wouldn't play him in any format, even AL-only, for the second half.

Hold

Dan Haren, SP, Angels: After two months of hell the other cleat finally dropped: Haren's been dealing with back problems all year. He bit the bullet and went on the DL, which is what fantasy owners should want: rest, rehab, come back strong for the stretch run. At least the injury isn't tied to the shoulder, elbow or forearm. I can't see why Haren won't be one of the 40-50 best pitchers in the second half; use that rank and apply it to your league. He might be a buy in some formats, a sell in some others.

John Axford, RP, Brewers: He's been a hot mess this year, no one will dispute that: five losses and five blown saves, 4.86 ERA, 1.44 WHIP. But Francisco Rodriguez's ratios aren't really much better, and the Brewers are trying to move K-Rod besides. Axford's latest blown save also came on a fourth consecutive day of work - in those instances, you blame the manager, not the pitcher. Milwaukee will probably stick with the status quo for the balance of 2012.

Dennis Rasmussen looks to build off experience

Dennis Rasmussen looks to build off experience

The Blackhawks’ offseason moves have once again left holes, especially among the forward lines. Considering the experience Dennis Rasmussen gained last season, he could certainly grab the third- or fourth-line center spot.

But Rasmussen isn’t going to pencil in anything yet.

“I don’t really think that way. I always think I have to play as good as possible to earn a spot, and that’s what I think this year, too,” said Rasmussen on Day 3 of Blackhawks training camp. “But it’s really up to me. I have to play well to earn my spot here. That’s what I’m trying to focus on.”

After trading Andrew Shaw, Teuvo Teravainen and Bryan Bickell this offseason, the Blackhawks will be looking for several players to step up and fill voids. Center is one of those spots, and Rasmussen played 44 games there with the Blackhawks last season. Rasmussen spent the long offseason prepping for this campaign, focusing on one thing in particular.

“I always try to work on getting faster, that’s the part of my game I can really improve,” he said. “I can improve everything. But especially getting quicker, that’s what I’m trying to focus.”

Anything else Rasmussen has to do to take that next step?

“I think he’s got to be a little more proactive than reactive out on the ice,” Blackhawks assistant coach Mike Kitchen said. “Kind of be a little bolder in different areas whether it’s in the offensive zone if you’re down between the hash marks, hey, try and take a guy on 1-on-1. But if you’re a neutral zone, you got to be a little more responsible. If you got to pick up the wide winger and come back and play good defensive hockey, that’s what you’ve got to do.”

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Rasmussen showed that when he made his NHL debut last season. The Blackhawks recalled him in early December, when they were looking to bolster their bottom six; any offense added was a bonus. He scored three of his four goals in his first seven games – his first came in his NHL debut vs. Nashville.

“He can make more things happen out there,” Kitchen said. “I think he understands that too because he wants to do whatever it takes to make the team.”

Rasmussen wants to be part of this group. He gained some great experience last year, and he hopes it serves him well in trying to get that roster spot this season.

“It was great for me. I got to play a lot, think I played in some important situations sometimes and I was really happy with last year. It gave me a lot of confidence, a lot of experience too,” Rasmussen said. “So hopefully I can bring that into this year.”

Let's speculate: Could Les Miles come back to the Big Ten?

les-miles-0925.jpg

Let's speculate: Could Les Miles come back to the Big Ten?

Les Miles was fired Sunday after 12 seasons as the head coach at LSU.

Miles has an awesome resume: a 114-34 record with 62 SEC wins, plus a national championship in 2007 and another trip to the national title game in 2011. Seven of his 12 seasons ended with double-digit wins, and two of them ended in SEC championships.

So he's sure to be a hot commodity when teams look to fill not-yet-existent head-coaching vacancies this offseason.

As far as we're concerned here in Big Ten Country, though, will a Big Ten program be able to land the Mad Hatter as a high-profile splash?

Miles is a Big Ten product, remember. An Ohio native, he played for Bo Schembechler at Michigan and later coached under Schembechler and Gary Moeller as a Michigan assistant from 1987 to 1994. He has familiarity with the conference and the recruiting grounds.

It's all pure speculation right now, as it's quite possible there will be no openings in the conference when the regular season wraps in late November. But if we were to project which Big Ten programs might be looking for new coaches this offseason, could we find a spot for Miles?

The obvious team that might be parting ways with its current head coach is Purdue. Darrell Hazell has had almost no success running the Boilermakers, currently with a 8-31 record in three-plus seasons and a grotesque 2-22 mark in Big Ten play. That's usually enough for a tenure to come to an end, but is it too much losing to keep Purdue from being an attractive choice for the free agent Miles? Certainly we've seen high-profile coaches take jobs at less-than-power programs before, particularly after wearing out their welcome at their previous spot of employment. Lovie Smith just surprised by taking a job at Illinois after a long career as an NFL head coach. Perhaps Purdue can use similar tactics — new athletics director Mike Bobinski just started his tenure and would surely like to make a splash — and of course there's all that Big Ten TV money that should make competitive pay no problem at all.

But there will more than likely be other suitors from bigger programs and ones with more storied traditions. Could one of them be Penn State? James Franklin is only in Year 3 in Happy Valley, but the Valley isn't so happy at the moment, with the Nittany Lions getting crushed by Michigan on Saturday to show just how big the gap currently is between the top of the Big Ten East Division and Penn State. Bill O'Brien worked wonders in the immediate years after the Jerry Sandusky scandal had such a big effect on the program, but Franklin's continued reclamation effort isn't going too swimmingly in that ultra-competitive division with 7-6 records in each of his first two campaigns. There's certainly a case to be made for giving Franklin more time, but college football fans (and athletics departments) aren't famous for their patience. The tradition and profile of Penn State would have to be attractive to Miles, who dealt with a high-profile environment at LSU, and if the university is real serious about getting the Lions back to the top of college football's heap, bringing in Miles — and his track record of recruiting success — would do it, at the very least from a public-relations standpoint.

And then there's the obligatory mention of Michigan. Michigan? Jim Harbaugh is just in the second year of his tenure and seemingly has a lifelong title set up as the King of Ann Arbor. But should Harbaugh, who's had great success turning the Wolverines around in lightning-quick fashion, head back to the NFL, that would create an opening. Who better to fill that hypothetical vacancy than another Michigan Man in Miles? Miles has had his name linked to Michigan before, of course, with the obvious connection sparking speculation when the Wolverines needed to find replacements for Lloyd Carr, Rich Rodriguez and Brady Hoke. There's no indication Harbaugh's going anywhere, of course — we're in speculation land, remember? — but because it's Miles, the possibility has to be at least addressed.

It's all a guessing game at this point, and there are sure to be other high-profile openings around college football that will become speculative destinations for Miles, not to mention other job titles that aren't "head coach." But it'd be something to see him join the Big Ten's already-loaded roster of head coaches.