Chances slim that Trestman boosts Bears 'W' total in 2013


Chances slim that Trestman boosts Bears 'W' total in 2013

The only answers that really matter wont start coming until sometime in September. But there is nothing premature in musing about exactly what might expected of the 2013 Marc Trestman Bears and the 2013 Marc Trestman-Aaron Kromer offense in particular.

Not all of the expectations are necessarily good.

Chances are that the 13 Bears wont be as successful as the 12 ones. No coach in franchise history has ever won as many as 10 games in his first season; for that matter only one (Paddy Driscoll, 9-2-1, 1956) has even won nine.

The organizations tradition is that incoming coaches win no more, and usually fewer, games than the ones they replace. Since the end of the George Halas era 45 years ago, only Dick Jauron and Dave Wannstedt posted first seasons better than the coaches they succeeded:

Coach: Ws

Lovie Smith: 2004 - 5
Dick Jauron: 2003 - 7

Jauron: 1999 - 6
Dave Wannstedt: 1998 - 4

Wannstedt: 1993 - 7
Mike Ditka: 1992 - 5

Ditka: 1982 - 3 (nine-game season)
Neill Armstrong: 1981 - 6

Armstrong: 1978 - 7
Jack Pardee: 1977 - 9

Pardee: 1975 - 4
Abe Gibron: 1974 - 4

Gibron: 1972 - 4
Jim Dooley: 1971 - 6

Dooley: 1968 - 7
George Halas: 1967 - 7

Trestman will be challenged to top Smiths 10 wins in 2012. Then again, just about every year some new kid gets that done and more.

The Indianapolis Colts went to the 2012 playoffs with first-timer Chuck Pagano in first year and with first-timer Bruce Arians stepping in for 12 games when Pagano was ill. Jim Harbaugh went 13-3 and to the 2011 playoffs in his first NFL coaching season.

Then-novice Rex Ryan rallied the N.Y. Jets to the 2009 playoffs. John Harbaugh had the Baltimore Ravens at 11-5 in 2008, his first season as a head coach at any level.

Best guess: If the Bears do not equal or top Smiths 2012 win total or make the playoffs, Trestman will be back for 2013 but Jay Cutler will not, unless the failure is entirely the fault of the defense.

Trestman meets the media

Be careful not to over-analyze, over-value or even underrate whatever Trestman has to say at his first meeting with the public via media on Thursday. His performance as a head coach will turn on what he does on a sideline, not at a podium.

Remember the fawning over Phil Emery for his apparent candor and utterances in his Jan. 1 press conference? Some of those praising that and his extended interview process were doubting Emerys judgment after Trestman was the choice.

Judging Emery by a press conference session was as useful as evaluating a Presidency by the inaugural address.

Forte has the most to gain?

Trestman was hired for his abilities to structure an offense, which says quarterbacks. But far from just that position.

The early guess on the Bears who will prosper most under Trestman isnt Cutler. The latter may finally become a franchise quarterback (which is far from the same thing as the franchises best quarterback).

It will be Matt Forte, and not so much as a runner but rather as the true all-around back he was before last season (no fewer than 51 catches from 2008-2011) and as envisioned by the Bears when they gave him 17 million guaranteed in his new deal last offseason.

Through Trestmans 14 main NFL seasons, backs (one RB, one FB as the model) in Trestmans NFL offenses consistently caught upwards of 70 passes. Three times, backfield tandems caught more than 100. Three others they topped 80.

Brandon Marshall may not completely buy into that. But if he wants to play in the postseason for the first time in his career, he should.

No hard feelings between John Fox and Jay Cutler, but no clear future, either

No hard feelings between John Fox and Jay Cutler, but no clear future, either

Jay Cutler returned to practice as he left it before the Week 2 game against the Philadelphia Eagles, in which he suffered a thumb injury that sidelined him for the past five games. He was back as the No. 1 quarterback.

But the landscape changed over those five weeks, at least outwardly, with Brian Hoyer filling in with a succession of 300-yard passing games and coach John Fox indicating that as long as Hoyer was performing well, he could hold onto the job.

Now Hoyer is gone to IR with a broken left arm suffered in a Week 7 loss to the Green Bay Packers and Cutler returns to a situation where his head coach’s endorsement and support has appeared conditional.

“He doesn’t have a choice, I guess, at this point,” Cutler said on Tuesday. “Brian is out, so I’ve got to go. I’ve had good conversations with Foxy this week, last week, the week before. There’s never been any strain in our relationship. We’re both very open and honest, and we’re on the same page. We just want to win football games.”

Fox has been ripped in some quarters for what was taken as creating a quarterback controversy. In fact, consistent with a competition mantra that has applied to every position since the end of last season, Fox supported each quarterback when their time was at hand: Hoyer when Hoyer was performing well, and Cutler now that he is back.

Bill Belichick made it clear that, regardless of how well Jimmy Garappolo played for his New England Patriots, Tom Brady would be back as the starter when his four-game suspension was over. Cutler has not established a Brady lock on the position.

Speaking about the running back situation, where one-time starter Jeremy Langford is returning from injury to find Ka’Deem Carey and Jordan Howard in front of him, Fox laid out the NFL reality, which applies to the Cutler-Howard situation.

“Earlier in the season I mentioned that way back in the day, if you were the starter, when you got hurt, it was yours when you came back,” Fox said. “Well, that’s not really the case as much anymore. It can be; you’re going to play the best guy and there’s competition to be involved in that.”

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The broader issue overhanging Cutler is whether the Bears plan to bring him back in 2017. This season has been bluntly described as a prove-it year for Cutler, who has no guaranteed contract money after this year, and Cutler has not proven a great deal in seven quarters of football, with a 75.7 passer rating, one TD pass and two interceptions.

Whether that is regressing from last year to levels closer to his career standards is what the next several weeks will reveal. At this level, the Bears would be unlikely to pay Cutler $15 million in 2017.

“I think those are conversations for the end of the year,” Cutler said. “Right now I’m working with Dowell [Loggains, offensive coordinator] and ‘Rags’ [QB coach Dave Ragone] and we’re just trying to find first downs and get our third-down conversion rate back up, score more points. That’s all we’re really trying to do and that’s all my focus is.

“Whatever happens at the end of the year, it’s supposed to happen, and we’ll go accordingly. But right now it’s not something that I worry about. It’s my 11th year, my eighth year here. I’ve seen a lot of ups and downs, and it’s how it goes. At the end of the year, we can have those conversations. Whatever happens, happens.”

As far as the best way to handle the inevitable questions about the future, “I think ignoring it is,” Cutler said. “I think it's going to be there; you can't completely ignore it.”

Bears In-Foe: Vikings defense is Purple People Eaters, Part II

Bears In-Foe: Vikings defense is Purple People Eaters, Part II

It's bad enough that Jay Cutler will be rusty and he may not have Kyle Long and Josh Sitton protecting him. But even if all the Bears' offensive hands were on deck, Monday night's challenge would've been formidable anyway.

The Vikings' defense leads the league in fewest yards allowed (279.5 per game), is tied for the league-lead in allowing fewest points (14.0), third in rushing defense (81.7), fourth in pass defense (197.8), and sixth in third-down defense (34.2 percent). And oh yeah, they lead the league in turnover ratio (plus-11), courtesy of their nine interceptions (tied for second), seven fumble recoveries and 19 sacks (seventh-most in the NFL).

It's nice to have quality and depth up front. That's where that push comes from, especially off the edges, with ends Brian Robison, Everson Griffen and sophomore Danielle Hunter supplying four sacks apiece. That trio combined for 21.5 sacks a year ago (when the Bears totaled 35 as a team). And while injury-prone Sharrif Floyd finds himself sidelined again since the opener, tackle Linval Joseph (three sacks) is back playing at the All-Pro level he was at a year ago before an ankle injury slowed him. And Tom Johnson contributed 6.5 sacks a year ago rotating in with Floyd at three-technique.

[RELATED: Bears In-Foe: Purple a fitting color for Vikings' battered, bruised offense]

Reunited UCLA linebackers Anthony Barr and Eric Kendricks are in their second year together in a run the Bears will likely have to deal with for another decade. This is the 11th and final year they'll see Chad Greenway, who's more leader than playmaker now in the middle of that defense.

Ryan Pace, Vic Fangio and position coach Ed Donatell must also be jealous of the Vikings' deep defensive backfield. Top cover man Xavier Rhodes, last year's top pick Trae Waynes and Andrew Sendejo have two picks each. Waynes still hasn't taken a job away from ageless 37-year-old Terence Newman. The Vikes were trying to upgrade on Sendejo, who answered the challenge and should be able to play Monday after departing the Eagles game with an ankle injury he suffered almost taking an interception to the house. It's almost unfair that second-round rookie Mackensie Alexander can't even surpass fourth cornerback Captain Munnerlyn for playing time.

But we must not forget Harrison Smith. The humble Golden Domer, humorously nicknamed "Gangsta White Boy" by Adrian Peterson, became the NFL's richest safety by inking a five-year, $51 million deal this summer, is coming off a first Pro Bowl that probably would've come sooner if not for a couple injuries. Two of his four career pick-sixes have come against the Bears, and Pro Football Focus has him as the only safety to grade positively in coverage, run support, and pass rush over each of the last two seasons.

Special teams

Just as Robbie Gould fell under the microscope of the current Bears brass with last season's rough finish, the strong-legged Blair Walsh probably feels a few more eyes on him after missing the 27-yard game-winning attempt in the frigid playoff loss to Seattle. He's 10-of-13 on field goals this season, 11-of-13 on extra points.

But while the Vikings' kickoff coverage was burned by Josh Huff's return Sunday in Philadelphia, the Bears coverage units have to be disciplined and smart against Cordarrelle Patterson and Marcus Sherels. Both have burned the Bears more than once before. With more than his seven kick returns, Patterson's 29.9 average would lead the league. Sherels' 14.6-yard return average on punts ranks third in the NFL. He's already returned two for touchdowns this season after burning the Bears at Soldier Field a year to the day short of Monday's contest.