The 2012 Bears schedule is out. Now the order of opponents is set, subject to flex times later in the season. That is always the trigger mechanism for predictions of how the year will go.Actually, you could have gotten into predix mode anytime after the final game, since the opponents were set back then, based on finish in the standings, yours and others in your conference.But now there are dates and times in place. More important, a major portion of player movement has already occurred, meaning that teams can be critiqued not just on last years record but also on what theyve done, not done or had done to them in the offseason.And for the third year in a row, View from the Moon is down with a prediction of 10-6 or better, with strong emphasis this year on the or better.(View from the Moon will pass on predicting game-by-game. That's minutiae, and View from the Moon is strictly big picture).Heres why:Recent historyThe 2010 season ended up 'or better' (11-5) and within a touchdown of reaching the Super Bowl. Last seasons '10-6 or better' was spot on up until Jay Cutler broke his thumb when the Bears were 7-3. The Bears still were within a game of tiebreakers even with Caleb Hanie and without Matt Forte for the final quarter of the season.Lion-izingThe draft still has to play out in a little more than a week, but the Bears were already even with or past the Detroit Lions (they whacked Detroit in their second game last year). And that was with Matthew Stafford healthy.OCThey changed offensive coordinators, formally, to the individual (Mike Tice) most responsible for turning around their game plans the past two years. The Bears didnt win 18 of 26 regular-season games entirely because of Mike Martz; they won some in spite of him.QBsTheir quarterback has ended the past two seasons wearing a baseball cap on Sundays but they are better equipped to deal with misfortune now than at any time in recent history, with Jason Campbell, should calamity befall Cutler a third straight year.(Not that it matters exactly, but if the Lions or Packers lose their starting quarterback, theyll be lucky to be playing in a BCS bowl game).UpgradesNo team in the NFC North has upgraded as much as the Bears already have with Brandon Marshall at wide receiver, Michael Bush at running back, Devin Thomas and Eric Weems at wideout and special teams, and at the same time avoided taking any significant steps backwards.This was already a good team; critics should accept that. It has only gotten better this offseason. The same cannot be said for Detroit and Green Bay, and for a number of teams on the schedule, for that matter.ScheduleForget about win-loss percentage of opponents for evaluating difficulty of schedule. View from the Moon has always placed greater store in how many good teams do you have to play?The Bears play seven games against teams with winning records for 2011, and four of those are in the NFC North (Detroit and Green Bay). The other three are the Tennessee Titans, Houston Texans and San Francisco 49ers, in succession from weeks 9-11.
Eric Kush was in some pain after the Bears win over the San Francisco 49ers. But it was a “good” pain, particularly since part of it was inflicted by a teammate.
The teammate was running back Jordan Howard, and the Bears left guard was learning along with his linemates that when Howard is coming, “he’s a-comin’,” Kush said.
“Oh man, sometimes you’re, ‘[groan-groan-groan], and he’ll hit you right in the back, you fall and try to take your guy down with you and stick him in the snow so you’re not the only one getting soaking wet and cold. But Jordan’s a lot fun and we try to kick some butt for him.”
The rookie running back has become more than simply a draft nugget from the fifth round of this year’s draft. Howard has established himself as an integral part of a winning formula of complimentary football, the concept long favored by John Fox, Lovie Smith and coaches who operate from the foundation of a premier running game, impact defense and solid special teams.
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The Bears’ three wins have come this season in the only games in which Howard has been given 20-plus carries: 23 vs. Detroit, 26 vs. Minnesota, 32 vs. San Francisco. Add to those the 3 pass receptions against the Lions and the 4 against the Vikings and the true centerpiece of the 2016 Bears offense is more than a little apparent.
For obvious reasons beyond simply the rushing numbers.
“Especially pass protection,” said offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains. “I think he's taken a big jump that way. When you're young in this league, those are the things that can get grey for you. You run the football, he's obviously a talented player there, but in pass pro, he's made his biggest growth.”
As a corollary to Howard, San Francisco was only the second game this season in which the Bears called fewer than 30 pass plays (the only other time was at Green Bay, when the Bears only ran a total of 45 plays, 27 of them pass plays). In that respect, the snow was viewed as an ally by some in the locker room who have been unhappy at the run:pass balance, which was just 36-percent-run coming into the 49ers game.
“It was one of these games where, with the weather, we couldn’t pass the ball like we normally do — 30 times — so we had to keep it on the ground,” said one member of the offense.
Howard’s breakout game as an NFL ball carrier came against the Lions (23 carries, 111 rushing yards, 3 receptions). The Bears, looking for a breakout of their own in the form of a first two-game win streak in more than a year, are expected to keep it simple — and in Howard’s hands.
“I always expected a lot out of myself,” Howard said. “I didn’t really think that things would happen maybe this soon or this fast. I’m definitely grateful for it.”
The adage “play the man, not the board” seems somehow appropriate for what the Bears are doing to prepare for the Detroit Lions behind quarterback Matt Barkley.
“The man” is Detroit defensive coordinator Teryl Austin, and the Bears have been scouting him as well as his defenses, beyond just Bears games, beyond this season and last, taking in his 2014 Detroit season when Austin prepared defenses for Jay Cutler and Jimmy Clausen.
How did Austin scheme for rookie Carson Wentz when the Lions played (and beat) the Philadelphia Eagles? How did he structure is defense to stop a rookie Teddy Bridgewater when Detroit played Minnesota? (Not very well, apparently, since the Vikings won both games and scored 54 points combined in the two games).
While the John Fox Bears staff went against Austin’s Lions defense twice last year, Cutler was the Bears quarterback. When the Bears beat Austin and the Lions two months ago, it was with Brian Hoyer.
Now the Bears quarterback is Matt Barkley, who has fewer NFL games played (seven) than Cutler has NFL seasons (11), Hoyer (eight), too, for that matter.
“Different defensive coordinators attack young quarterbacks differently,” said offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains. “Some guys blitz, some guys play a bunch of zone. This group on defense there, they have a really good defensive coordinator, they're really smart, they do a bunch of stuff. On the back end, they run all the coverages.
“As a game, we'll have to make adjustments as the game goes and see what their plan to come out is early.”
Coaches and players may talk about how they prepare for a scheme irrespective of which opposing quarterback, running back, linebacker or whatever they will be facing. But in fact, preparations start with who is orchestrating the opponent’s offense or defense – play the man, not the board.
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A risk can be out-thinking yourself trying to anticipate what a coordinator will do. The first point, Loggains said, is to start with your own strengths.
“We definitely look at that,” Loggains said. “As you go in the league long and longer, you face these guys, you see them in crossover games. We always know how a guy attacks a rookie quarterback or attacks a young quarterback, a veteran, or, in Matt's case, a guy who hasn't played as much.”
Evaluations of Barkley’s performance will broaden, particularly now that he is on tape for defensive coordinators to scheme for and scout. And while they are watching Barkley, the Bears are watching them.