Bulls' patience in hectic times should pay off

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Bulls' patience in hectic times should pay off

Bulls management hasn't made waves in NBA free agency thus far the way some observers expected, and for that, fans of the team should be somewhat grateful.

While the departure of Kurt Thomas to Portland and Keith Bogans being unlikely to return to Chicago subtract two important, if underappreciated veterans from last season's cohesive, 62-win regular-season squad that advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals, at least the organization has generally steered clear of a bizarre post-lockout period that's already been wilder than Saturday's ugly Xavier-Cincinnati brawl.

While general manager Gar Forman didn't exactly deny the team's interest in acquiring disgruntled (or not?) Magic All-Star center Dwight Howard, the fact that detailed information of the organization's pursuit of the reigning three-time Defensive Player of the Year hasn't leaked means that either the front office is doing an excellent job of playing its cards close to the vest or Forman's claim of wanting to keep the club's nucleus together is accurate.

Besides, with the hullabaloo Howard has caused as of late--an alleged meeting in Miami with the Nets' braintrust, reportedly asking for a trade, insisting he'd prefer to remain in Orlando, but only if changes are made--is drama the Bulls can do without, especially at the risk of irritating speculated trade bait Joakim Noah and Luol Deng, among others, just before a season in which they are expected to be a title contender.

Instead, the focus has been on making less high-profile additions, such as veteran shooting guard Richard Hamilton, who was officially waived by the Pistons on Monday, is expected to sign for the mid-level exception--two years for 10 million--and should be in Chicago this week, likely by Wednesday. While Hamilton has declined from his past All-Star days, he offers a legitimate scoring threat next to Derrick Rose, championship experience, solid team defensive principles and allows Bulls head coach Tom Thibodeau to keep the effective "Bench Mob" second unit intact.

Another subtle move made by management was re-signing Brian Scalabrine, a reliable locker-room presence and pseudo-assistant coach, to a non-guaranteed contract; the veteran forward reportedly settled his situation with FIBA after playing professionally in Italy during the lockout.

Most importantly, however, the Bulls will likely soon agree to terms with Rose, the youngest MVP in NBA history, on a five-year contract extension, made more lucrative as a product of his namesake rule, negotiated in the newly-ratified CBA.

Forget how the Bulls' patience, rather than rushing into an ill-advised bidding war for a mediocre crop of free agents (Hamilton is still at least close to the same level of many of the so-called top players at the position on the market), has already paid off; their wise choice to stay out of the chaotic mix to chase Howard--let alone Chris Paul (whose trade to a second L.A. team seemingly won't happen, this time because the league reportedly pushed the Clippers for one asset too many in promising young guard Eric Gordon for the NBA-owned Hornets; perhaps to encourage Paul to remain in New Orleans?) or Chauncey Billups (the floor general, amnestied by the Knicks, was snatched off waivers by the aforementioned Clippers, in the wake of the veteran's weekend comments to Yahoo about being frustrated by the situation), not that either of those players were options for Chicago--and virtually stand pat, assuming the Hamilton deal gets done and they add a veteran big man, so far looks to be a winner.

While teams like defending champion Dallas (adding productive veterans Lamar Odom, Vince Carter and Delonte West), New York (former Bulls center Tyson Chandler via the Mavericks, with the potential Cavaliers amnesty casualty Baron Davis looming), Miami (Shane Battier and a wild card in another ex-Bulls center, Eddy Curry) and even Indiana (underrated power forward David West, erstwhile Bulls talking point O.J. Mayo and draft-day acquisition George Hill) have certainly improved, the team with the league's top record last season--as Rose said Sunday, "Maybe people forgot"--will be just fine.

Monday on CSN, CSNChicago.com: Bulls introduce Denzel Valentine

Monday on CSN, CSNChicago.com: Bulls introduce Denzel Valentine

The Bulls will introduce first round draft pick Denzel Valentine on Monday at the Advocate Center, and CSN has you covered all the way.

Tune in to CSN Chicago or catch a live stream on CSNChicago.com at 11 a.m. as GM Gar Forman and head coach Fred Hoiberg introduce Valentine, the Michigan State senior whom the Bulls selected 14th overall in last week's NBA Draft.

Valentine, last year's AP Player of the Year, became the first player in NCAA history to average at least 19 points, seven rebounds and seven assists in a single season. The shooting guard's versatility and ability to shoot from the perimeter will make him a perfect fit in Fred Hoiberg's system, and his passing will help in the wake of the Bulls dealing Derrick Rose to the Knicks.

Check out our coverage of Valentine and the rest of the Bulls draft:

Bulls 'absolutely thrilled' to land Denzel Valentine

Gar Forman shoots down Jimmy Butler trade talk

How the NBA cap spike will affect the Bulls

Bulls get 'a well-rounded player' in Paul Zipser

How the Bulls' Central Division foes fared in the 2016 NBA Draft

Remedial Chaos Theory: The NBA cap spike and how it impacts the Bulls

Remedial Chaos Theory: The NBA cap spike and how it impacts the Bulls

There is an iconic line from "The Matrix" where Morpheus tells Neo, “Unfortunately, no one can be told what the Matrix is. You have to see it for yourself.” That line also applies to this year’s NBA free agency. You’ll read dozens of articles over the next few days talking about the salary cap spike and how it’s going to impact the league, but none of us really know what to expect on July 1. We’re going to have to see it for ourselves, and that includes the front office of every team in the league.

Gar Forman told CSN Chicago on Thursday night after the draft, “I don’t think anybody knows what’s going to happen come July 1 because there’s never been anything like this where there’s been such a spike in the cap.” The salary cap is going to increase from $70 million in 2015-16 to $94 million in 2016-17. That’s a nearly 35 percent increase in one season -- by far the biggest in league history.

The Cauldron's NBA salary cap expert Nate Duncan says to expect chaos for not just one, but two years: “I expect it to be completely insane, not only since there is a ton of space this year but because with the cap spiking to a projected $107 million next year (pending a new CBA) these ridiculous contracts could actually end up looking good by comparison with what is handed out a year from now.” (1)

Nate makes a fantastic point because we’re in store for two years of a completely unknown market. The best teams will plan for 2016 and 2017 simultaneously. How many free agents this year will opt for a two-year deal with a player option on the second year? We could witness a situation in which many top tier free agents this year go through the same process again next July.

Perhaps the most crucial aspect of the cap spike is the sheer number of teams that will have room to sign a player to a max salary. (2) RealGM.com projects that 13 teams will likely have space to sign a Tier 1 free agent to a max deal. In addition to the 13 teams that will likely have that amount of cap space, BasketballInsiders.com projects that up to 25 teams could hit that mark.

 In 2010, the year of one of the greatest free agents classes in history, just eight teams had space to sign a max player. Outside of Kevin Durant, this year’s class is not particularly strong, and there will be 20+ teams looking to spend a lot of money. There is no way a player is going to meet with 10 teams, let alone 20. There are going to be many teams who can’t even get a sitdown with a player they are interested in.

We were already going to see eye-popping contracts this summer just based on the cap spike. A player who would have made $12 million per season before is projected to make $16 million per season just based on the percentage increase. But the real wild card is the sheer number of teams with cap space. Duncan says the most intriguing part of free agency for him will be the secondary market: “I want to see what some of the role players get. How low do you have to get in the market before the money finally starts running out?” And to borrow from Donald Rumsfeld, this is the biggest known unknown. What happens when teams start to panic? You may see players eighth in a rotation get $10 million+ per season.

Think of it this way: Let’s say you and 20 of your friends have brand new iPhones and gift cards to get the premium versions of apps. But in this scenario, each app is only available to download once. Furthermore, that gift card expires after one week. Waze, Spotify, and Snapchat are going to go early and kudos to those of you who downloaded them. Then Instagram, Facebook and Pinterest get downloaded. At some point, one of you is going to get desperate, panic, and download the Meow Meow Beenz app you really didn’t want. (3)

Mentally prepare yourself for seemingly outrageous contracts. Harrison Barnes, despite struggling mightily in the playoffs, is going to get a max deal. Kent Bazemore is probably going to get $15 million per season, and E’Twaun Moore is probably going to get $7 million a season. I may even be low on those numbers. This is part of the "unintended consequences" that Adam Silver referenced in his annual All-Star address last February.

Let’s narrow the focus on how this impacts the Bulls. I’m projecting them to have approximately $24 million in cap space to spend.

That number could increase if they are aggressive in trying to trade Mike Dunleavy Jr, Tony Snell, or Taj Gibson (4).

The Bulls will be looking to add an impact player to the roster this July, but they face several challenges.

The Bulls will go after top-tier players, but a more realistic expectation is to sign two rotation players. Forman said this about his team’s strategy July 1: “My guess would be as opposed to one guy we’ll probably look to fill some holes and look for some guys that fit the plan moving forward.”

The key part of that quote is the “fit the plan moving forward” line. Forman has to plan for 2016 and 2017. Overpay for a marginal free agent now and that could greatly limit flexibility next summer. The 2017 free agent class may be better than 2010 and the 2017 draft will be one of the most talented in nearly a decade.

I think the smart play for the Bulls is to either overpay on a one-year deal for a starter, or sign two rotation players to a relatively team-friendly deal. They will want to maintain cap flexibility next summer.

The challenge for the Bulls (and every team) is finding the right player without getting into a bidding war that causes a team to overpay. I actually think the second and third wave of free agents signings will cause more people to be shocked than the “who got a max deal?” signings.

Teams have to be flexible and be willing to adjust course instantly. As long as the Bulls don’t remain rigid and treat free agency like Rickon running from Ramsey, they should be able to add quality depth to the roster. (5)

Footnotes

1. There is an opt-out in the current Collective Bargaining Agreement that allows either side—the owners or players—end the current CBA next July.

2. NBA free agents max salaries are based on their years of service in the league. Tier 1 free agents are 0-6 years. Tier 2 is 7-9 years. Tier 3 is 10+. First year max for Tier 1 in 2016-17 is $22.2m, Tier 2 is $26.6m, and Tier 3 is $31.1m. Please visit Larry Coon’s amazing CBA FAQ for more info

3. Downloading Meow Meow Beenz is only done on the Darkest Timeline.

4. The Bulls could also save a small amount of cap space but waiving two players with non-guaranteed contracts: Spencer Dinwiddie or Christiano Felicio. They could also save the salary of second-round pick Paul Zipser by entering an agreement that he play in Europe next season.

5. Don’t even get me started on why he was running in a straight line. I could write 1,000 words on that scene alone.

Derrick Rose pens farewell to Chicago: 'It’s time for a new chapter'

Derrick Rose pens farewell to Chicago: 'It’s time for a new chapter'

Derrick Rose was officially introduced as a member of the New York Knicks on Friday afternoon.

After thanking the Bulls organization for trading him, Rose penned his farewell to the city of Chicago via TheCycle.com.

While looking forward to playing alongside Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis with the Knicks, Rose reflected on his time with the Bulls.

Chicago made me who I am. It’s tatted on my wrist. I was raised in my grandmother’s house on South Paulina Street in Englewood. Being drafted by the Bulls, becoming an All-Star and an MVP on the Bulls, helping the them make the playoffs — all of that was a dream come true. I’ll never forget it. I’ve carried Chicago with me everywhere I’ve gone, from around the country to all over the world. I always will.

I understand that this is a business and the Bulls have their plans, their own ideas with what direction they want to go with the team, but I’m gonna use this as motivation. I was with them for eight years and they let me go. There’s no hard feelings, no grudges. They’re trying to do what’s best for the team. I totally understand that. But I don’t think I would be wrong for using this as motivation.

Check out the full article here.