Projecting Dayan Viciedo


Projecting Dayan Viciedo

Dayan Viciedo will take over right field with a ton of hype -- hype that he's earned with back-to-back solid seasons between Triple-A and the majors. But the 23-year-old probably won't be a savior of the White Sox offense. Or, at least, he shouldn't be expected to be that savior.

Viciedo showed improved plate discipline last season in Charlotte, raising his walk rate from 3 percent to nearly 9 percent while lowing his strikeout rate by 5 percent. In 113 MLB plate appearances, his walk rate fell a bit while his strikeout rate jumped back into the 20 percent range -- which is pretty normal. That his walk rate remained fairly steady (right around the MLB average of 8.1 percent), though, is an encouraging sign, even in a small sample size.

There are two projections out there for Viciedo right now, with those being from Bill James and Dan Szymborski (ZiPS). Here's how they project Viciedo:

.275.324.455.340 (wOBA)
2167ZiPS.274.328.431100 (OPS)
A few things of note:

ZiPS projects Viciedo's offense to be wholly average (a 100 OPS is average).

James is a little more optimistic, as Viciedo's .340 wOBA would sit above 2011's average of .316.

The plate discipline projections -- James has Viciedo with a 9634 KBB, while ZiPS sees Viciedo with a 11440 KBB.

21 home runs is a fair baseline. That was the exact number Viciedo hit between Charlotte (20) and the majors (1) last season, so even with some improvement, that he'll be facing major league pitching every day means he probably shouldn't be expected to hit more than that.

These projections should be viewed as baselines, not "this will definitely happen next season." Players deviate from these projections all the time, but they're useful for determining a rough idea at what level a player should be expected to perform.

Defense. Neither James nor ZiPS takes into account defense -- but that's worth its own separate post regarding Viciedo, because his defense will make or break his value in 2012.

SportsTalk Live Podcast: Winter meetings trades for Cubs and White Sox


SportsTalk Live Podcast: Winter meetings trades for Cubs and White Sox

Hub Arkush (Pro Football Weekly/670 The Score) and David Schuster (670 The Score) joined David Kaplan on the SportsTalk Live panel for Thursday's show.

Baseball’s winter meetings are over. Could Rick Hahn have done more this week? Plus which closer will have a better season- current Cubs closer Wade Davis or former Cubs closer Aroldis Chapman?

How much upheaval will there be on the Bears’ coaching staff this offseason? Plus are the Bulls in slump or are we finally seeing the real team show up?

Listen to this episode of the SportsTalk Live podcast here:

Rick Hahn: White Sox 'still thoroughly, deeply engaged' in trade talks as meetings close

Rick Hahn: White Sox 'still thoroughly, deeply engaged' in trade talks as meetings close

NATIONAL HARBOR, Md. -- The White Sox have a pair of relievers to dangle and have become increasingly busier with two of three free-agent closers off the board.

Prior to leaving the Winter Meetings on Thursday, White Sox general manager Rick Hahn was asked if a pool of relievers including closer David Robertson and setup man Nate Jones had drawn much interest.

Having already traded Chris Sale and Adam Eaton, it’s believed the White Sox are willing to part with most anyone if the price is right. It sounds as if that possibility has improved after the Yankees’ late night signing of Aroldis Chapman on Wednesday, two days after the San Francisco Giants signed Mark Melancon. With only Kenley Jansen still left in free agency and due a big salary, Robertson, who has two years and $25 million left on his deal, could solve several teams’ relief needs. Jones is also a draw with potentially five years left on his current team-friendly deal, which includes two club options and one mutual option for 2021.

[SHOP: Gear up, White Sox fans!]

“We’ve had a lot of interesting conversations on a number of different fronts involving are players,” Hahn said. “And yes, we still have reliever pieces and starting pieces that are appealing to various teams throughout the league. I don’t think anything is going to happen between now and the time I go pick up my bags and head to the airport. But still thoroughly engaged, deeply engaged on a number of different fronts.”

Despite adding five pitchers and two position players through their first two moves, the White Sox still have a long list of desires. That list potentially includes a long-term starting catcher and another big bat among others.