What's next for Gavin Floyd?

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What's next for Gavin Floyd?

I'm a big fan of FIP. In most cases, it's an accurate predictor of future performance, a much better evaluative tool than ERA. It factors in three things pitchers can directly control: walks, strikeouts and home runs -- thus, Fielding Independent Pitching.

FIP is why I was concerned about Gavin Floyd going in to 2009. His results were fantastic in 2008, and his 3.84 ERA still stands as a career high. But his FIP was a full-season high of 4.77, which seemed to be a harbinger of doom for the next season.

An odd thing happened after late May of 2009, though. Floyd went from being a pitcher who seemingly pitched above his ability to one who pitches below his ability. Basically, Floyd's walk rate and home run rates went down while his strikeout rate went up. And so did his ERA.

Floyd has thrown 574 innings from 2009-2011 with a 4.17 ERA. So just as his 2008 FIP predicted, his ERA did go up -- but the weird thing is that FIP went down. Basically, Floyd has done better at the things he can control while seeing worse results.

In theory, Floyd should be primed for a breakout. A lot of sabermetrically-oriented analysts value him as the guy with a good FIP, and thus value him highly.

But three straight years of a sub-3.85 FIP and above-4.00 ERA are probably a trend. Throw Floyd's win-loss record out the window -- that he's 33-37 in the last three years isn't important.

A side note, though: As you'll see in the sidebar video, Floyd is concentrating on getting himself -- and, of course, his team -- wins. Pitcher wins (not above replacement) are not a good stat for writers to use in evaluation, since they're so incredibly influenced by factors out of a pitcher's control.

But for a pitcher? It's great that Floyd wants to win games. For Floyd, if he gets the W, that means the White Sox won. Of course, if he is shouldered with a loss, it may not be his fault, and no pitcher should ever "pitch to the score" (i.e. be content with allowing five if the offense scores six). But since pitchers aren't analysts, executives, etc., wanting to win games is a good thing.

Anyways, back to meaningful stuff Floyd can actually control. This isn't a comparison looking at Floyd's mentality, more in terms of results: Floyd has become Javier Vazquez lite. In two of his three years with the Sox, Vazquez' ERA was nearly a full run higher than his FIP, save 2007 when he had a 3.74 ERA and 3.80 FIP.

Vazquez did a lot of things right, posting good strikeout and walk rates. But his command was often an issue, leading to the righty throwing quite a few hittable pitches and, thus, the high ERAs. The big inning was always an issue for Vazquez while with the White Sox; he'd cruise along for four innings then unravel in the fifth.

But if Floyd is Vazquez lite, that's actually not a bad thing. He's had better ERAs than in Vazquez' worst years, and remember, Vazquez put together a fantastic year in 2007. If the ERAs are neutral, it's much better to have a lower-FIP guy like Floyd than a higher-FIP guy, since the lower FIP pitcher is much more likely to have "big" season -- just as Vazquez did five years ago.

Maybe this is the year Floyd finally breaks the trend of the last three seasons. But even if he doesn't, he'll be a valuable asset to the White Sox as a solid mid-rotation pitcher.

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White Sox snap six-game losing streak behind Jose Quintana

White Sox snap six-game losing streak behind Jose Quintana

CLEVELAND — Jose Quintana secured only the second winning record of his career on Saturday night and he did it without the use of the changeup and curveball.

The All-Star pitcher ditched his offspeed stuff early and managed to rebound from a poor start as the White Sox snapped a six-game losing streak with an 8-1 victory over the first-place Cleveland Indians in front of 32,088 at Progressive Field. Working mainly with an effectively wild fastball, Quintana, who has only one start left, improved to 13-11 with six innings of one-run ball against the first-place Indians. Six different White Sox hitters drove in a run in support of Quintana.

“You really don’t see him like that too often,” White Sox manager Robin Ventura said. “He just gritted through it. He has a lot of heart in him to be able to keep battling through.

“Just not as smooth really the whole time through there. He grinded it out, got us to a point where we could score some runs and separate. He deserves one of these.”

Quintana didn’t look like he could buy an out in the early going as he struggled with command.

Similar to his last start in Kansas City, Quintana was missing by a lot, as much as a foot in some instances, according to catcher Alex Avila. He threw strikes on only six of 21 combined curveballs and changeups, which led to three walks in the first two innings and twice facing the bases loaded.

Even so, Quintana nearly managed to escape unscathed. He induced an inning-ending double play in the first off Carlos Santana’s bat to keep the White Sox ahead 2-0. And, after he allowed an RBI single to Rajai Davis in the second, got Jason Kipnis to ground out with runners on the corners to maintain a 2-1 advantage.

“Best adjustment was to try and throw first pitch for a a strike,” Quintana said. “I started a little slow … First inning I missed the spot too much especially with the fastball. After that I made the adjustment.”

The adjustment included working almost entirely with the fastball, even though it also had a bunch of run to it. But Avila said that worked in Quintana’s favor as it induced a number of pop outs.

Whereas Quintana looked vulnerable in the first two innings, he looked infallible over his final four.

He retired 13 of the last 15 hitters he faced, including nine on pop outs or weak fly balls. Quintana pitched around a pair of doubles in the process and only allowed a run and six hits with three walks and two strikeouts.

“The way he’s pitched, he definitely deserves to have a lot more wins,” Avila said. “But like I told him before, there’ll be a year where it flips the script on him and things will fall into place moreso than has been in the past.”

The White Sox offense rewarded Quintana for his Houdini act, one that had Avila stunned they managed their way through it.

[SHOP: Gear up, White Sox fans!]​

Melky Cabrera and Jose Abreu each had first-inning RBIs as the White Sox took a 2-0 lead. Cabrera’s two-out RBI single in the fifth inning extended the White Sox lead to 3-1 and Todd Frazier belted a solo homer in the sixth to make it a three-run lead.

Avisail Garcia, Carlos Sanchez and Leury Garcia all had RBI singles during a four-run eighth inning.

Perhaps its another sign the luck has turned for Quintana, who improved to 46-45 despite a 3.41 career ERA. Earlier this season, Quintana, whose 59 no decisions are still by far the most in the majors since 2012, finally reached 10 wins for the first time in his career.

Even though Quintana said statistics aren’t important to him, his manager believes they are a point of pride for the left-hander.

“It’s been so tough for him,” Ventura said. “I think it’s important. He has a lot of pride going out and doing what he can to help us win games. For him, it’s a step in the right direction. Hopefully we can score runs like this more often for him. Everybody knows his record would be a lot better if we could score some runs for him.”