Close call: Moon predicts the Pack will win the 'Bowl


Close call: Moon predicts the Pack will win the 'Bowl

Sunday, Feb. 6, 2011
11:05 a.m.

By John Mullin

The Super Bowl has had its high points in drama, ranging from the St. Louis Rams stopping the Tennessee Titans a yard short of a goal line to David Tyree making a fourth-down Velcro catch against his helmet for the New York Giants to sustain a winning drive over the New England Patriots.

And it has had its other, well, games, events where the only drama was settling on a final score in a contest won by double-digit margins. Of the last 10 Super Bowls, five have been decided by 11 points or more, including three of the last five.

But when the two best defenses in football against scoring (Pittsburgh No. 1, Green Bay No. 2) are on the field, chances rise exponentially for a smash-mouth game likely to be decided by one play, whether due to excellence or forced error, in the final 5 minutes in the fourth quarter.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are in their third Super Bowl in the past six years, all behind Ben Roethlisberger, who will assume his spot among the games elite quarterbacks past and present regardless of outcome. The Green Bay Packers were in the NFC Championship in 2007, Brett Favres last game as a Packer, but have been in the playoffs two of their three seasons behind Aaron Rodgers.

The Steelers command the high ground of experience with Roethlisberger, but Rodgers has played significantly better in playoff games than in regular-season games, the hallmark of a great quarterback.

And the hallmark of a great defense is playing to its strength, which the Steelers do, regardless of quarterback.

Our game plan never changes, said safety and defensive player of the year Troy Polamalu. Its always about applying pressure. Its about tackling after the catch. You know Rodgers receivers are going to get the ball because hes such an efficient quarterback. Tackle the guys and then not give up big plays and not let the ball get over our heads.

And finally.

Games between two good teams are the most difficult to assess. Both can play to their levels, which usually guarantees something close. Or ones strength takes away one element or enough of the others to put distance between the two on the scoreboard.

That could happen Sunday but elite defenses are rarely trampled and the guess here is that wont happen to either Green Bays or Pittsburghs. Ironically, the last time the two teams faced each other was in late 2009 when Pittsburgh defeated Green Bay in the final tick of the clock when Ben Roethlisberger connected with Mike Wallace on a 19-yard touchdown pass for a 37-36 win.

I think defensively, based on watching their body of work throughout the season, and I know firsthand that our defense has improved, so with that, their defense has improved, said Packers coach Mike McCarthy. I look for the defenses to impact this game more than they did in last years game.

Indeed, the only offenses to put major points on the Packers since October were New England and Atlanta, and Pittsburgh isnt in the firepower class with either. The Steelers were burned for 39 by the Patriots, then 24 by Baltimore and 19 by the Jets in the playoffs but are still the NFLs best at keeping numbers off scoreboards.

The Packers were No. 2 in the NFL in points differential and this is the tipping point, so to speak. The Steelers have the defensive base to pressure Aaron Rodgers out of a comfort zone and game plan but the big-play potential in the Green Bay offense rates the edge over the Rashard Mendenhall power-running option in the end.
Green Bay 17 Pittsburgh 16

John "Moon" Mullin is's Bears Insider, and appears regularly on Bears Postgame Live and Chicago Tribune Live. Follow Moon on Twitter for up-to-the-minute Bears information.

Bears In-Foe: Vikings defense is Purple People Eaters, Part II

Bears In-Foe: Vikings defense is Purple People Eaters, Part II

It's bad enough that Jay Cutler will be rusty and he may not have Kyle Long and Josh Sitton protecting him. But even if all the Bears' offensive hands were on deck, Monday night's challenge would've been formidable anyway.

The Vikings' defense leads the league in fewest yards allowed (279.5 per game), is tied for the league-lead in allowing fewest points (14.0), third in rushing defense (81.7), fourth in pass defense (197.8), and sixth in third-down defense (34.2 percent). And oh yeah, they lead the league in turnover ratio (plus-11), courtesy of their nine interceptions (tied for second), seven fumble recoveries and 19 sacks (seventh-most in the NFL).

It's nice to have quality and depth up front. That's where that push comes from, especially off the edges, with ends Brian Robison, Everson Griffen and sophomore Danielle Hunter supplying four sacks apiece. That trio combined for 21.5 sacks a year ago (when the Bears totaled 35 as a team). And while injury-prone Sharrif Floyd finds himself sidelined again since the opener, tackle Linval Joseph (three sacks) is back playing at the All-Pro level he was at a year ago before an ankle injury slowed him. And Tom Johnson contributed 6.5 sacks a year ago rotating in with Floyd at three-technique.

[RELATED: Bears In-Foe: Purple a fitting color for Vikings' battered, bruised offense]

Reunited UCLA linebackers Anthony Barr and Eric Kendricks are in their second year together in a run the Bears will likely have to deal with for another decade. This is the 11th and final year they'll see Chad Greenway, who's more leader than playmaker now in the middle of that defense.

Ryan Pace, Vic Fangio and position coach Ed Donatell must also be jealous of the Vikings' deep defensive backfield. Top cover man Xavier Rhodes, last year's top pick Trae Waynes and Andrew Sendejo have two picks each. Waynes still hasn't taken a job away from ageless 37-year-old Terence Newman. The Vikes were trying to upgrade on Sendejo, who answered the challenge and should be able to play Monday after departing the Eagles game with an ankle injury he suffered almost taking an interception to the house. It's almost unfair that second-round rookie Mackensie Alexander can't even surpass fourth cornerback Captain Munnerlyn for playing time.

But we must not forget Harrison Smith. The humble Golden Domer, humorously nicknamed "Gangsta White Boy" by Adrian Peterson, became the NFL's richest safety by inking a five-year, $51 million deal this summer, is coming off a first Pro Bowl that probably would've come sooner if not for a couple injuries. Two of his four career pick-sixes have come against the Bears, and Pro Football Focus has him as the only safety to grade positively in coverage, run support, and pass rush over each of the last two seasons.

Special teams

Just as Robbie Gould fell under the microscope of the current Bears brass with last season's rough finish, the strong-legged Blair Walsh probably feels a few more eyes on him after missing the 27-yard game-winning attempt in the frigid playoff loss to Seattle. He's 10-of-13 on field goals this season, 11-of-13 on extra points.

But while the Vikings' kickoff coverage was burned by Josh Huff's return Sunday in Philadelphia, the Bears coverage units have to be disciplined and smart against Cordarrelle Patterson and Marcus Sherels. Both have burned the Bears more than once before. With more than his seven kick returns, Patterson's 29.9 average would lead the league. Sherels' 14.6-yard return average on punts ranks third in the NFL. He's already returned two for touchdowns this season after burning the Bears at Soldier Field a year to the day short of Monday's contest.

Bears In-Foe: Purple a fitting color for Vikings' battered, bruised offense

Bears In-Foe: Purple a fitting color for Vikings' battered, bruised offense

Mike Zimmer couldn't hold back his frustration after Sunday's 21-10 loss in Philadelphia.

Realistically, big picture-wise, he should feel fortunate. Not that his team isn't any good. We've seen these Vikings coming for awhile. But his offense, minus so many pieces that have been subtracted due to injuries, hadn't turned the ball over once in its 5-0 start.

That's when Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, who'd seen Sam Bradford for all of training camp before he was traded a week before the opener, dialed things up. The result? Four turnovers, including Bradford's first interception of the season, coupled with a pair of fumbles. Schwartz doesn't have as many pieces as the Vikings' defense, but he had enough to sack Bradford six times, deliver 19 hits and 14 knockdowns.

Bradford's managed to step in for Teddy Bridgewater more easily than starting tackles Matt Kalil (hip) and Andre Smith (triceps) have been replaced. T.J. Clemmings is capable after starting all of his rookie season a year ago, but the hope that former No. 1 overall pick Jake Long had anything left took a serious hit Sunday. He'd gone unclaimed for quite a while (even reportedly going through a workout with the Bears), and we saw some of the reasons against the Eagles. He was replaced by journeyman Jeremiah Sirles. The middle of that line seems OK, thanks in part to the free agent signing of guard Alex Boone to anchor the interior with Brandon Fusco and center Joe Berger.

[RELATED: Bears In-Foe: Vikings defense is Purple People Eaters, Part II]

The great Adrian Peterson's torn meniscus in week two has him on injured reserve, with little hope he'll make it back. And while Jerrick McKinnon (3.2 yards per carry) and Matt Asiata (3.3) are serviceable, the line hasn't been able to help those replacements rush for an average of even 75 yards per game (31st in the NFL).

And think about this: Yes, the Bears have played one more game than the Vikings, but they have four receivers who've matched or surpassed the dangerous Stefon Diggs' team-leading total of 27 receptions. Three of Bradford's seven touchdown passes have gone to tight end Kyle Rudolph. Former Illinois High School Player of the Year Laquon Treadwell was targeted to be the big target Bridgewater/Bradford needed, but had just two snaps the first three games and has yet to catch his first NFL pass. It's part of the Zimmer Way to bring along draft picks slowly (think Trae Waynes last year, albeit at a much deeper position on this team). Zimmer's indicated the 23rd overall pick's still too mechanical, still thinking too much at this level to earn snaps over Adam Thielen, Charles Johnson and now, even the once-exiled Cordarrelle Patterson, who scored the Vikings' lone touchdown Sunday on a pass from Bradford.

Like the Bears, this banged-up unit has trouble in the red zone (touchdowns on just 47 percent of their trips inside), and their 21.5 points per game average is boosted by four touchdowns combined from its defense and special teams. It'll be interesting to see if Leonard Floyd, Willie Young and perhaps Pernell McPhee can have themselves a good night next Monday against that susceptible line, and who's able to go among the Bears' defensive backs versus a passing offense that's averaged only 225 yards a game.