Moon: How do Bears slow Brady, beat Patriots?

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Moon: How do Bears slow Brady, beat Patriots?

Friday, Dec. 10, 2010
Posted: 9:46 a.m.
By John Mullin
CSNChicago.com

Every game turns on a small handful of plays or factors. Here are the three that will decide the Bears-New England Patriots game Sunday:

1. Blunt Brady

If the Bears can't fully stop Tom Brady, recent history says they stand a better-than-most chance of containing him, at least partially, and that may enough.

The Bears have held nine of the 10 "regular" starting quarterbacks they've faced this season to a passer rating below that quarterback's season average. Only Seattle's Matt Hasselbeck was better than his average. The Chicago defense has allowed an average passer rating of just 71.1 while Jay Cutler has been passing at a career-best 92.8. Only the Green Bay Packers (69.6) have been better at stopping passers.

Why that opposing quarterback rating matters in this case is because the only two teams to defeat the New England Patriots (New York Jets, Cleveland Browns) were responsible for two of Brady's three lowest passer ratings of the season and his two lowest completion percentages.

Brady hasn't thrown an interception in seven games, so blunting him is far, far easier schemed than done, particularly since only four teams have given up fewer sacks than the Patriots. But with a vulnerable defense, Brady is the absolute point of the New England spear with his own personal ball-control program built around completing 66.8 percent of his passes.

It is not a spear that lives with deep thrusts in the Martz downfield tradition. The Patriots average 11.8 yards; the Bears by comparison average 12.4. But Brady has thrown 385 passes and only four of them were intercepted vs. 27 going for touchdowns.

"That's why he's got all those Super Bowl rings," said defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli. "He doesn't make many mistakes."
2. Stay the course

The change in offensive philosophy from pass-first to balanced has been the biggest single key to the makeover of the Bears' season, from a stretch of losing three of four to reeling off five straight victories. The commitment to running the ball has helped bring the offensive line together and, if not necessarily reducing the sack total down to acceptable levels, has taken a huge chunk of pressure off Cutler.

The Bears are 7-0 this season when they rush for 100 yards. All three of their losses have come when they've rushed for few 75 yards, regardless of attempts or average per carry.

Their play-calling has been nearly 50-50 run-pass over the last five games. Cutler has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in three wins in the five-game run and, most important, has thrown 10 touchdown passes vs. three interceptions.

"It starts at the top with Mike Martz," Cutler said. "He does a good job in meetings of keeping guys positive and keeping them on point with the system and believing in it and showing guys examples on tape of how the system works -- if we do it right, what would happen.

"And guys got it. There were glimpses of it on tape, and guys understood if we completely got everything down that we could be explosive. Are we there yet? Not yet, but we're definitely on our way."

The problem with New England, however, is that no defensive schemer is better at forcing players, coaches and teams out of what they want to do than Bill Belichick. He has done it to Martz in the past and one dangerous scenario for the Bears would be Belichick completely shutting down the Chicago run game to the point where Martz and Cutler become impatient and risk turnovers in search of big plays, particularly if they believe they cannot afford their balanced game plan in the face of some quick New England points.

The Bears are 6-1 when they have had an edge in time of possession, a normally meaningless statistic if only looked at in terms of minutes and seconds. But every minute that the Chicago offense is on the field, New England's is not. It is a course Martz needs to stay on more than against any opponent to date this season.
3. Take the points
The Bears are 8-1 when they have scored 18 or more points. Only once this season (in Detroit) have they scored touchdowns on every possession reaching inside the red zone but they have won four of the five times that they have scored points of some sort.

The temptation may arise to press for touchdowns when facing a scoring offense like New England's, and when dealing with a defense like the 2010 Patriots which is 18th in points allowed and among the NFL's worst against the pass.

The Patriots committed three turnovers in the losses both to the Jets and Browns, accounting for two-thirds of New England's entire 2010 turnover total. Only three teams have taken the ball away more than the Bears' 26. The defense is tasked with adding to the New England turnover total and the offense and special teams need to turn every freebie into points and avoid point-less gambles.

"We have to be detailed to combat Tom Brady and the Patriots," said linebacker Lance Briggs. "We have to play fast and physical. We know he's going to take what defenses give him. He's going to take what he sees. We have to be ready when that ball does come out, we have to punish ball carriers and be opportunistic when that ball is in the air and get pressure on him."

John "Moon" Mullin is CSNChicago.com's Bears Insider, and appears regularly on Bears Postgame Live and Chicago Tribune Live. Follow Moon on Twitter for up-to-the-minute Bears information.

CSN Bears analyst Chris Boden's 2017 NFL Mock Draft

CSN Bears analyst Chris Boden's 2017 NFL Mock Draft

1. Cleveland Browns: QB Mitchell Trubisky (North Carolina)

Hue Jackson gets a taste of what working for Jimmy Haslam is like. The owner wants the kid from Ohio, but how long will he let him sit behind Brock Osweiler and Cody Kessler. They don't get the top-rated player in Myles Garrett, but can circle back and address the pass rush at 12.

2. San Francisco 49ers: DE Myles Garrett (Texas A&M)

Well look who dropped into their lap. Perhaps a bit redundant after drafting Oregon defensive linemen DeForest Buckner and Arik Armstead in the first round the past two years, but they'll worry about running back, quarterback, you name it…later on.

3. CHICAGO BEARS: S Jamal Adams (LSU)

Tempted by Solomon Thomas, who's not a true 3-4 end, but Vic Fangio would move around, and feeling Jonathan Allen's topped out, potential-wise, they go with the proven, healthy guy who can lead the secondary for the next decade. Malik Hooker more of a playmaking center fielder, but the injury history helps this decision.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars: TE O.J. Howard (Alabama)

They've sunk a ton of money and draft picks on defense the last few years, and while Blake Bortles is on "notice" with Tom Coughlin, he gets a perennial Pro Bowler to throw to with the wideout tandem of Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns. Leonard Fournette also tempting, but they'll stick with T.J. Yeldon and Chris Ivory for the time being.

5. Tennessee Titans: CB Marshon Lattimore (Ohio State)

They'll circle back for a much-needed wide receiver at 18, but roll the dice with the protypical, if hamstrung by injury, top corner on the market to help the 30th-ranked pass defense.

6. New York Jets: WR Mike Williams (Clemson)

Tempted by DeShaun Watson after drafting quarterbacks three of the past four years, Josh McCown needs someone to throw to after parting ways with Brandon Marshall. They go with Watson's deep target from the national champs over Corey Davis.

7. Los Angeles Chargers: S Malik Hooker (Ohio State)

Eric Weddle was great for a lot of years in San Diego, but they found out how difficult he was to replace last season. Defensive Rookie of the Year Joey Bosa has another young star to build that side of the ball around, provided he stays healthy.

8. Carolina Panthers: RB Leonard Fournette (LSU)

The Cam Newton Preservation Society (of which the former MVP still isn't a member) wins the War Room vote in Charlotte.

9. Cincinnati Bengals: DE Solomon Thomas (Stanford)

A surprising drop based on the way his stock skyrocketed since the Sun Bowl, but the 3-4 teams who passed will discover he's a perfect fit for this 4-3 that has a need on the edge and has suffered a defensive exodus recently.

10. Buffalo Bills: LB Reuben Foster (Alabama)

New coach Sean McDermott gets himself the best inside linebacker on the board as he puts his stamp on a defense he hopes to re-create from Carolina.

11. New Orleans Saints: DE Derek Barnett (Tennessee)

Cameron Jordan gets a partner on the opposite side to rush the quarterback on a defense that ranked 27th (last against the pass).

12. Cleveland Browns: DL Jonathan Allen (Alabama)

Allen's ideally a 4-3 tackle, but is versatile enough to provide impact as a "5-tech," alongside stout nose tackle Danny Shelton. If not, blame the Browns after long-term concerns about his shoulders and how much higher he can raise his level after an excellent college career. 

13. Arizona Cardinals: QB Patrick Mahomes (Texas Tech)

Choosing between Watson and Mahomes, Bruce Arians' confidence level over how he can shape Carson Palmer's heir guides him to the gun-slinger.

14. Philadelphia Eagles: RB Christian McCaffery (Stanford)

McCaffery a multi-dimensional weapon to pair with Carson Wentz and Alshon Jeffery (for at least this year).

15. Indianapolis Colts: Edge Charles Harris (Missouri)

The league's 30th-ranked defense needs a lot of help. Harris is a start.

16. Baltimore Ravens: WR Corey Davis (Western Michigan)

Steve Smith has retired. The barely-recruited kid from Wheaton-Warrenville South slides in.

17. Washington Redskins: LB Hasson Reddick (Temple)

His status grew with every practice heading into the Senior Bowl and has gone nowhere but up.

18. Tennessee Titans: WR John Ross (Washington)

The Combine record 4.22 40 pushed him into the first round, but carries a risk with a history of knee injuries before finally staying healthy in 2016. Say hi to Marcus Mariota.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Edge Taco Charlton (Michigan)

Say it. Taco Time in Tampa for a D that finished 22nd against both the run and pass.

20. Denver Broncos: T Ryan Ramczyk (Wisconsin)

There's ALWAYS concern and questions about the Broncos offensive line. Here's one answer.

21. Detroit Lions: LB Jarrad Davis (Florida)

DeAndre Levy's gone, and while they added Paul Worrilow and good use another edge rusher opposite Ziggy Ansah, Davis fits, and fills a need.

22. Miami Dolphins: CB Quincy Wilson (Florida)

Lots of defensive needs for Adam Gase to address. He starts here, and the team saves a bit on transportation costs.

23. New York Giants: TE David Njoku (Miami)

OBJ. Brandon Marshall. And now the fast-rising second-best tight end in the draft.

24. Oakland Raiders: LB Tim Williams (Alabama)

Silver-and-Black lost some defensive personnel this off-season. Williams can cause some distraction from Khalil Mack.

25. Houston Texans: QB Deshaun Watson (Clemson)

Well wasn't this conveeeeenient for Bill O'Brien.

26. Seattle Seahawks: OT Garrett Bolles (Utah)

Sexy? No. But the Seahawks seem to join the Broncos is sweating out O-Line issues every year. Protect Russ.

27. Kansas City Chiefs: DT Malik McDowell (Michigan State)

Dontari Poe and Jaye Howard were off-season salary cap victims.

28. Dallas Cowboys: S Jabril Peppers (Michigan)

Does this say Cowboys, or what?

29. Green Bay Packers: RB Dalvin Cook (Florida State)

Ty Montgomery was pretty good. Cook will be even better.

30. Pittsburgh Steelers: LB Takkarist McKinley (UCLA)

They can go inside with Raekwon McMillan, but decide to go for some James Harrison insurance after parting ways with Lawrence Timmons and Jarvis Jones.

31. Atlanta Falcons: DE Demarcus Walker (Florida State)

The guy just made plays for an elite program and fills a need on Dan Quinn's emerging D.

32. New Orleans Saints: WR Curtis Samuel (Ohio State)

They'll get back to addressing the defense but for now, a Brandin Cooks replacement in the spot the Patriots gave them for Cooks.

 

Clemson's Deshaun Watson is the one situation where a Bears reach has epic upside

Clemson's Deshaun Watson is the one situation where a Bears reach has epic upside

First impressions are so often the right ones, and throughout much of the pre-draft process, View from the Moon has been of the mind that LSU safety Jamal Adams would be the Bears' first selection on Day 1 of the NFL Draft. GM Ryan Pace set forth the premium the organization was placing on a ballhawking safety; Malik Hooker’s injury history raised too many concerns, and Adams was rated among the draft’s premier talents regardless of position.
 
That has changed, which is absolutely zero assurance that it was a change for the better. Because the cone of silence over Bears intentions, which may set the media a-grumbling but is at least something that the Bears have in common with Green Bay and New England, naming just a couple, is securely in place, which is a credit to the administration. (If another Administration out East were as airtight, political pundits would be reading their kids' school poems just to fill air time).
 
The revised decision to posit the Bears selecting Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson came on a wave of second thoughts drawn from information from a variety of sources. Chief among the "sources" was Pace himself, who has placed a premium on an individual capable of lifting not just the defense, but the organization. That bespoke "quarterback," and Watson gains the highest grade by virtue of intangibles on top of experience and results, with nods toward North Carolina's Mitchell Trubisky.
 
Usually the pre-draft process is to fault-find and nit-pick prospects, run 'em down a little, hedge bets. But with Watson, the closer this observer has looked, the better, not worse, the Clemson kid has looked.
 
The chief caveat or qualifier with Watson has been general consensus among draft analysts that Watson has some accuracy issues. Not that this would be any sort of picking nit to find something wrong with the guy, but his career completion percentage is 67.4, with all three of his season hit rate at or above 67 percent. No other top prospect (Trubisky Pat Mahomes, DeShone Kizer, Nathan Peterman, Brad Kaaya, Davis Webb – I stopped looking at that point) has three seasons at that level or anything approaching the consistency of all three of his college years being nearly identical for this one measure of accuracy.
 
But a mantra here this draft has been that stats and measurables should not be the starting point for evaluating quarterbacks; it should be intangibles, THEN the measurables. More on the stats in a moment.
 
On the intangibles/character graph, consider:
 
The kid finished his degree, in communications, in three years, which was how long he planned to be at Clemson. Notably, he’s not alone in this kind of degree-compartmentalizing; Leonard Fournette at LSU and Clemson teammate and wideout Artavis Scott are both on schedule for finishing their studies at about the same time as their football. This would be what this reporter considers a very, very big positive in the character area and one that more players are moving on, a good story for another time.

Watson’s chief negative cited has been turnovers, specifically his 17 interceptions in the 2016 season. That also was the season Watson took Clemson to the national championship over Alabama, and the one in which he threw 579 passes. I can’t do this at the moment, but if there are instances where Watson's play was a bit off for a particular game, it might be amusing to find out what finals/tests/labs he had due the day before. Hopefully teams don't gig him for studying something other than game film that week.
 
But back to the stats and measurables...

Watson’s 17 interceptions in 579 attempts this past college season means an interception rate of 2.9 percent – or just about exactly what Brett Favre had for his college career. Obviously, all purely for academic comparison purposes, Watson for his career was a little better than Favre, at 2.7 percent. Watson completed 67 percent or more of his passes in those three Clemson seasons, if accuracy is a concern. This year’s Super Bowl quarterbacks: Tom Brady’s Michigan pick rate was 2.7 percent; Matt Ryan threw 19 his senior year at Boston College before going No. 3 overall to Atlanta.
 
The Favre/Brady/Ryan point is this: Look beyond just the numbers, and even beyond some of the supposed smudges on Watson's game at this point. The position is about leadership and winning, and Watson comes into the draft with zero concerns there.
 
Suggesting that the Bears send up their first card with Watson's name on it doesn't ignore the dubious wisdom in drafting a player significantly higher than his grade on a draft board. But intangibles factor heavily into the quarterback position, and those aren't generally factored heavily into the grading process. Too many draft mistakes (Favre second round, Joe Montana third, Russell Wilson third, Brady sixth) were made ignoring those elements.
 
Reasons abound for the Bears not reaching for Watson at No. 3 – Jonathan Allen. Adams. Malik Hooker. Marshon Lattimore. Solomon Thomas. (Insert your choice here.) And the overall of "he’s doesn't have a top-five grade."
 
But as laid out here previously during this draft season, the quarterback position is about more than height-weight-arm strength-40 time-and such. The Bears hope they won’t ever be at No. 3-overall again. Whether they see Watson as the best chance to keep that from happening will play out later this week.