Mullin: A draft run on QBs? The Bears hope so

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Mullin: A draft run on QBs? The Bears hope so

Thursday, April 21, 2011
Posted: 8:57 a.m.

By John Mullin
CSNChicago.com

Questions may persist in some quarters about Jay Cutlers knee injury but not about the Bears quarterback situation. Theyre set at the top, even if coordinator Mike Martz isnt exactly sold on Caleb Hanie.

The Bears invested heavy draft capital in the trade for Cutler and because they did, they are potentially in a position to watch from a comfortable vantage point an interesting scramble for quarterbacks that a number of analysts see forming with the 2011 draft.

For some months the debate over whether Blaine Gabbert or Cam Newton was the better of the top two quarterbacks, and they were the consensus only two expected to go in the first round.

Now the projected number of quarterbacks going in the first round is up to four and even six.

I think theres panic among teams that are looking for a quarterback, said NFL Networks Mike Mayock.

The Bears sit at No. 29 and couldnt be happier if that many teams are chasing quarterbacks.

It means that trade discussions may be more lucrative as with teams willing to spend more to move up into the first round to address the franchise position. It also means another cluster of players that teams take before No. 29, leaving more of the players that the Bears hoped would be within their reach.

The fastest-rising quarterback this week has been Jake Locker from Washington, considered by some to have been the potential No. 1 overall pick of last years draft but for his decision to honor his word to stay in school. For teams looking at character, that makes a good impression.

He said he was coming back for his senior year, said former coach and ESPN analyst Jon Gruden. He said he wanted to take Washington to a bowl game, and I admire that about him. He could have walked away from the Husky program and potentially been the number one pick a year ago according to a lot of analysts. But he wanted to do what he said he was going to do, and that is a trait that I really admire.

Pro Football Weeklys Nolan Nawrocki, who sees Locker going No. 12 to the Minnesota Vikings, projects the Seattle Seahawks taking TCU quarterback Andy Dalton at No. 25. Nolan also likes the Miami Dolphins looking past maturity concerns and taking Ryan Mallett of Arkansas at No. 15.

The Bears have 28 slots ahead of them. Nolans projection would take care of five. Lets put lines through defensive tackles Marcell Dareus and Nick Fairley as being likely top-10ers, along with linebacker Von Miller, cornerbacks Patrick Peterson and Prince Amukamara, and wide receivers A.J. Green and Julio Jones. The Bears wouldnt be taking a wideout in the first round, nor a linebacker, and those two cornerbacks wont last past No. 15.

Thats 12 of the 28 down. Figure USC tackle Tyron Smith to Dallas at No. 9, where most draft projections place him, and lets say three other offensive linemen from the group that includes Anthony Castonzo, Mike Pouncey, Gabe Carimi, Derek Sherrod and Nate Solder.

Now were up to 15, probably more, and thats not folding in defensive ends like DaQuan Bowers, Robert Quinn and Adrian Clayborn. Take those three off the board and were at roughly No. 18.

The Bears rarely trade up (just once under GM Jerry Angelo and that in a later round) so they need chunks of players to go at positions not on their must-have list. Offensive line is one of those positions but even taking off a few still leaves a starter-grade talent or three for them.

All of which gets exponentially more interesting with the possibility of as many as six quarterbacks going in the first round. Notably here, the Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots and New Orleans Saints all got some private time with Dalton. All are set right now but with Tom Brady and Peyton Manning deep into their careers, adding those teams to any quarterback discussion works to the Bears favor, particularly since two of the three are in the other conference.

John "Moon" Mullin is CSNChicago.com's Bears Insider, and appears regularly on Bears Postgame Live and Chicago Tribune Live. Follow Moon on Twitter for up-to-the-minute Bears information.

Want to be in on Bears QB deliberations? 'Look at the film'

Want to be in on Bears QB deliberations? 'Look at the film'

Back in 1992 the Dallas Cowboys were in draft deliberations around the No. 17 spot of the first round, looking for upgrades on defense. A scout made a suggestion that they target Ohio State defensive end Alonzo Spellman, one of the most physically imposing (6-4, 280 pounds) players and best athletes in that draft.
 
Coach Jimmy Johnson responded, "Tell me about the production."
 
Came back the answer: Three years at OSU, nine total sacks.
 
"Oh, please!" Johnson scoffed, calling in cornerback Kevin Smith and leaving Spellman to the Bears at No. 22. Spellman had several respectable seasons but never more than 8.5 sacks in nine NFL seasons.
 
As investment advisers counsel, past performance is not necessarily a predictor of future results. But past performance can be, and an axiom in NFL personnel rooms is, look at the film.
 
CSNChicago.com is doing that as the NFL Scouting Combine approaches (Feb. 29) along with free agency and the start of the league year and its trading window. It becomes an increasingly relevant exercise to look at the intricacies behind some of the key players and positions the Bears will be addressing through the upcoming weeks. CSNChicago.com previously looked at the need to evaluate quarterbacks from the intangible standpoints first, then the measurables.
 
Using Jay Cutler as an object lesson for how immense physical skills have questionable correlations to immense NFL performance, a look at one aspect of quarterback "film" warrants more attention than the measurables that command a disproportionate share of attention and scrutiny.
 
Ball security.
 
It has been Cutler's single biggest issue through his eight Bears seasons, was a reason why coaches once wanted to stay with Josh McCown instead of returning to Cutler following a Cutler injury absence, and why Brian Hoyer played his way into prominence in the discussion of 2017 Bears plans. Adam Gase went from offensive coordinator to hottest head-coach prospect in no small measure because he managed Cutler into better ball security.

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But the point here is less Cutler – expected to be traded or released within the near future – than the level of ball security in the available options beyond Hoyer.
 
So, look at the film:
 
The widespread drooling over a possible trade with New England for Jimmy Garoppolo. The best thing in Garoppolo's favor is that he has been a Patriots backup to Tom Brady. Garoppolo, drawing distant comparisons to a Matt Flynn, Matt Cassel and other past experience-lite quarterback options, has thrown 94 NFL passes without an interception, which is impressive until matched against Hoyer's 200 last season without an interception, for comparison purposes.
 
But evaluating Garoppolo against the coming chief draft competition – DeShone Kizer, Mitch Trubisky, Deshaun Watson – suggests comparing apples to apples, meaning college ball security, since that's all the kids have to this point.
 
Garoppolo vaulted up draft boards (to New England's second round) on the strength of an Eastern Illinois senior season with 53 touchdown passes vs. nine interceptions, against chiefly FCS opposition. But in his first three seasons Garoppolo threw for 65 touchdowns and was intercepted 42 times.
 
Kizer? In his two Notre Dame seasons, 47 touchdowns, 19 interceptions.
 
Trubisky? 30 touchdowns last season, six interceptions. Including his two years as a North Carolina backup, 41 touchdowns, 10 interceptions.
 
Watson? 90 touchdowns, 32 interceptions in three Clemson seasons, the last two as Tigers starter.
 
Observations:
 
Garoppolo put in four college seasons, but has a little of the Trubisky/Flynn/Cassel, one-year-wonder feel. 
 
Kizer and Watson have more starting seasons, but the Watson intangible of getting his team to two national-championship games speaks to another level of "intangible."
 
GM Ryan Pace will incorporate heavy input from coach John Fox and coordinator Dowell Loggains. Coaches love ball security. Garoppolo? Watson? Trubisky? Kizer?
 
Look at the film.

BearsTalk Podcast: The risk and reward for Bears in trading for Jimmy Garoppolo

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USA TODAY

BearsTalk Podcast: The risk and reward for Bears in trading for Jimmy Garoppolo

In this edition of the BearsTalk podcast, CSN's Chris Boden, Sun-Times Bears beat writer Patrick Finley, and CSNChicago.com's Scott Krinch discuss the Bears' approach to the two-week window opening to franchise-tag Alshon Jeffery again, the risk/reward in trading for Jimmy Garoppolo or drafting a QB (and how high to draft one), Scott's 2.0 mock draft, plus the workers' compensation controversy the team found itself in last week and the club's decision to raise ticket prices.

Listen to the full episode at this link or in the embedded player below: