Mullin: Will Bears go with 'safe' picks in draft?

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Mullin: Will Bears go with 'safe' picks in draft?

Friday, April 15, 2011
Posted: 10:35 a.m.

By John Mullin
CSNChicago.com

Spent some very interesting studio time with former NFL safety and National Football Post analyst Matt Bowen on Thursday. We did a couple of sessions, one dealing with this draft and the other putting it in some context with respect to recent drafts and some of the strategies thatll be in play when the Bears get after it in less than two weeks.

Those will air next week and Id give it a look to get some of Matts perspectives on where the Bears go, and hell give you a name that warrants serious watching and at a position thats gotten a bit overlooked with all the focus on offensive and defensive lines and linemen.

In the meantime, though, NFPs Wes Bunting has assembled a short list of Mr. Safe Picks that has a few names of note. In particular its noteworthy with respect to the Bears because safe is not a dirty word for Jerry Angelo, Tim Ruskell and the Bears, who look very hard at a players floor, their expected minimum level.

Three of Wes prospects are right where the Bears are focused and any one or two of them could be a Bear by sundown Friday (day two).

Two are offensive linemen: Clint Boling, 6-4, 308 pounds, a four-year starter at Georgia at three different positions, meaning he plays well at guard and tackle; and Stefen Wisniewski, whom Wes projects as a possible early starter at either center or guard in the NFL. Wisniewskis uncle (Steve) and father (Leo) were NFLers and if you dont think that matters, ask the Packers how their Matthews thing is working out.

And the defensive lineman Wes includes as a Mr. Safe is LSU tackle Drake Nevis, who would be a surprise in the first or second round but is a shorter version of Tommie Harris. The Bears believe they struck gold in the 09 fourth round with Henry Melton, another undersized tackle, and Nevis in that range could be another one.

What about wideout?

One other noteworthy Mr. Safe that Wes cites is a wide receiver from Kentucky, Randall Cobb, whos 5-11, 186 but has run in the 4.4s for his 40s and is perhaps one of the best all-around players in this draft, having been a quarterback as well as receiver, rusher and returner. He ranks below Miamis Leonard Hankerson, the 6-2 burner that Matt Bowen is extremely high on at a position where the Bears need a potential elite talent.

But the Bears have just three receivers in place now (Earl Bennett, Devin Hester, Johnny Knox), with Rashied Davis turning 31 and more a special-teamer at this point. Receiver was to have been a prime target in free agency, but with that on hold,

Angelo is extremely leery of high picks at wide receiver because of the bust factor and the higher value of line positions. But a safe pick in or around the third round, where the Bears got Bennett and where Terrell Owens came in, would be distinctly within the realm of possibility.

Besides, Marty Booker (3rd), Marcus Robinson (4th) and Bernard Berrian (3rd) were all in that range and all three are among the franchises career receiving-yards top 25. I have to think the Bears would be very, very good with a Mr. Safe with a Top-25 ceiling.

John "Moon" Mullin is CSNChicago.com's Bears Insider, and appears regularly on Bears Postgame Live and Chicago Tribune Live. Follow Moon on Twitter for up-to-the-minute Bears information.

Are Bears better than Texans, Broncos, Dolphins and others? Pro Football Focus says yes

Are Bears better than Texans, Broncos, Dolphins and others? Pro Football Focus says yes

Pro Football Focus has more than its share of both supporters and detractors of how it goes about grading NFL players. They break down every snap for every player, and while there are general agreements on what's seen by naked, untrained eyes who don't put the time and investment into its system that PFF does, there are other evaluations that seem to come out of the blue. While there's occasional guesswork on a player's particular assignment on a given play within its scheme, those of us who've watched and studied nuances of the game, or those who've played it, can usually identify how many jobs were done correctly.

Tuesday, PFF released its rankings of all 32 NFL rosters but in essence focused on the quality of each team's starting lineup, listing the Bears — are you sitting down? — 18th in the league. That's ahead of the likes of the Ravens, Saints, Texans, Dolphins, a Jaguars franchise that's had tons of high draft picks in recent years, as well as the Broncos and Lions (whom they rank 28th). The top five are the Falcons, Patriots, Titans, Packers and Steelers (the Bears play three of those teams in September alone). Among other Bears opponents, they rank the Panthers 10th, Vikings 12th, Buccaneers 13th and Eagles 15th.

[BEARS TICKETS: Get your seats right here]

Their evaluation is based on each player's final score from last season, "elite" and "good" being the top two levels, followed by "average" and "below average" to "poor." The only Bear earning elite status was inside linebacker Jerrell Freeman. Another nine Bears finished with good grades: Jordan Howard, Zach Miller, Josh Sitton, Cody Whitehair, Akiem Hicks, Eddie Goldman, Danny Trevathan, Adrian Amos and Quintin Demps (who earned his grade in Houston).

Those earning average grades were Cam Meredith, Kendall Wright, Kyle Long, Charles Leno, Jr., Pernell McPhee and Prince Amukamara. Below average: Mike Glennon (in mop-up duty in Tampa Bay), Kevin White, Bobby Massie, Leonard Floyd and Jaye Howard. The only Bear earning a poor grade among projected starters was tight end Dion Sims (with Miami). The other potential flaw is that PFF lists Kyle Fuller (no grade) and Bryce Callahan (average) as starters when Marcus Cooper and Cre'Von LeBlanc likely have the inside track to start at cornerback and nickel back, respectively.

How did the Bears get to 18th, above three playoff teams and another that won the Super Bowl two years ago? Well, all of those other teams have more elite players at certain positions, but it's offset by a number of spots occupied by more players with poor or below average grades. The Broncos (25th) for instance, had four elite players, just another four falling under the good grade, but five players listed as poor.

Jordan Howard wants to lead Bears... and lead the league

Jordan Howard wants to lead Bears... and lead the league

So Jordan Howard finished second in the NFL in rushing in his rookie season, despite just a dozen carries in the first three games. The fifth-round pick joined the man who beat him out for the rushing title, Ezekiel Elliott, as one of just five rookies in history to average five or more yards per carry on over 250 carries. And he set the Bears' rookie rushing record with his 1,313 yards while becoming just the fourth in franchise history to rush for that many yards in a season.

Sounds pretty hard to top, like we might be set up for the dreaded sophomore slump.

But...

"Things are a lot different this year because I know what to expect," Howard said during the team's minicamp two weeks ago. "I know all the plays and things like that. I’m not out there thinking, so I can just play free and fast.

"I definitely feel like a veteran 'cause I know what to expect and can help the young guys on the plays that they're not understanding. I’m just more comfortable and want to be a leader."

One of the other things we learned about Howard last year is he's low-key, a man of few words. So the Indiana product by way of UAB will make his points verbally when needed, but his actions will speak louder.

"He was a rookie a year ago and didn't even go in trying to be a leader, telling a five-year guy what was up," said head coach John Fox. "I think with time, and obviously with production like he had, I think it's a role he can fall in to. We're in a performance-based business and even in that locker room, what they do on Sundays gives them some credibility."

One of the concerns about Howard coming out of college was durability, but he answered the bell once he became the starter in week four against Detroit. And he probably wasn't used nearly as much as he should have. The good news about that is he was subject to less wear and tear, averaging just 18 carries per game from that Lions game on.

But besides taking more of a leadership role, Howard wanted to work on his speed without sacrificing the strong base that, paired with keen vision and work by the offensive line, allowed him to hit holes quickly and charge toward the second level of opposing defenses.

"Just improving on the little things – my conditioning, my weight, catching passes. And looking for ways to finish runs better," says Howard. "I feel like I’m in much better shape than I was at this time last year, a little more toned-up."

"It's just training," said Fox. "When you get to that it's more like track speed than football speed and I think he proved pretty worthy of that a year ago as a rookie. Y'know we all can improve on things, and that's the expectation. He's trained hard.

"This time of year last year he wasn’t even practicing," Fox remembered. "I like where we are, we’ve brought in more competition, and he’s better for it. He’s kind of gotten used to an NFL season, he’s come back ready to roll, but he still has work to do before we get to training camp."  

Oh, and the 22-year-old has a couple of other goals he didn't mind sharing, besides being a leader and getting a little faster.

"First off, make the playoffs. Be the leading rusher, and just help the team in any way I can and stay consistent."