Cubs from A-Z: What to watch for in 2013

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Cubs from A-Z: What to watch for in 2013

This. Is. The. Year.

Not even the most optimistic Cubs fan woke up on New Years Day thinking that way. Most have bought into team president Theo Epsteins rebuilding plan and accept that this will be another bridge year. Theyd probably settle for an interesting summer, and there appears to be enough pitching to make you think this team doesnt have to be out of it by Memorial Day.

But as Epstein has said, there will be a subtext. Looking at the big picture, here are the names, ideas and trends from A to Z that will shape the Cubs in 2013:

Albert Almora: The first draft pick of the Epstein administration should get a taste of what life is like in this market. The gifted outfielder will likely be making a stop at Kane County. He could be playing alongside his buddy Jorge Soler, giving this Class-A team a lot of buzz.

Brett Jackson: One ex-Cub once predicted (half-jokingly) that he will someday become the most popular guy in Wrigleyville since Mark DeRosa. All Jackson has to do is cut down on the strikeouts. The front office is building the Opening Day roster without him, ticketing him for Triple-A Iowa to start the season. But given the emphasis on speed, defense and athleticism, it wouldnt be surprising to see him running into brick walls this summer.

Crapshow: Thats how Matt Garza described his first half last season, and how he performs in April, May and June will say so much about the teams direction, whether they will be buyers or sellers or even consider signing him to a long-term contract (which is looking doubtful now). This is a walk year for Garza, who still has to prove hes healthy and once dismissed all the trade rumors (Texas Rangers?) by saying: Ill pitch on the freaking moon.

Distraction-free zone: At times, Dale Sveum was left with a Triple-A roster last season, but the front office did him a favor by getting rid of some divisive personalities. In Year 2, the manager will have to deal with increased expectations, while also maintaining that professional, no-nonsense clubhouse.

Edwin Jackson: Lance Berkman once told Sports Illustrated hes like the Kevin Bacon of BaseballSix Degrees of Edwin Jackson. Together they won World Series rings with the St. Louis Cardinals in 2011. After pitching for seven teams across the past eight seasons, Jackson becomes a building block on the North Side and gets the security that comes with a four-year, 52 million contract.

Foundation for sustained success: Even Epstein is getting tired of using this phrase. But assuming theres no out-of-nowhere miracle run to the playoffs, this year will be judged on how many more core pieces emerge for 2015 and beyond, to build alongside Anthony Rizzo, Starlin Castro and Jeff Samardzija.

Gary Sheffield bat speed: That was Sveums scouting report on Javier Baez, whos about as close to being a core player as a 20-year-old can be. The ninth overall pick in the 2011 draft figures to reach Double-A Tennessee at some point this year, and his high-energy, maximum-effort approach should be fun to watch. Baez left the Arizona Fall League with what was described as a non-displaced fracture on the tip of his right thumb. General manager Jed Hoyer identified the cause as a celebratory high-fivehe didnt punch a wall or anything.

Hohokam Stadium: The Cubs hope this is their final Cactus League run on Center Street before moving into a new facility in Mesa, Ariz.

Ian Stewart: Nows the time to show hes at full strength after wrist surgery and fully committed to becoming an everyday third baseman. His deal is non-guaranteed only in the sense that its like a standard contract for an arbitration-eligible player. He should make the Opening Day roster and get his money. Just dont expect the Cubs to have nearly as much patience.

Jim Deshaies: From the start of the search to replace Bob Brenly, the longtime Houston Astros analyst was said to be one of Len Kaspers favorites. That projected chemistry with the play-by-play man should help out during their first year together in the broadcast booth.

Kyuji Fujikawa: Whats Japanese for closer controversy? Fujikawas said to be a good guy, low-maintenance and without a huge entourage. The ninth inning may not be his on Opening Day, but hes viewed as part of the solution here, a big piece for 2014 and 2015.

L flags: After 101 losses, the tension between a baseball operations department looking toward 2015 and the business side trying to get you to buy tickets and shirseys will be fascinating to watch.

Mayor Rahm Emanuel: How City Hall responds to the Ricketts familys plans to renovate Wrigley Field which were met with silence during a bitter presidential election will again be a big story.

No no-trade clauses: Epstein and Hoyer have refused to give those out as Cubs executives, and its difficult to see that club policy changing anytime soon. The Ryan Dempster drama and the Carlos Marmol leak during the Dan Haren negotiations only reinforced that belief. The next time you hear a rumor about Alfonso Soriano, remember that hes in total control and has very specific ideas about where he might approve a trade. As Dempster said, its better to be the hammer than the nail.

On-base percentage: Epstein has viewed this as an institutional failure. It got Rudy Jaramillo fired. It will be a point of emphasis for hitting coaches James Rowson and Rob Deer. It will influence the types of players they sign, draft and develop.

Platform years: Phil Hughes will be 27 and maybe the most interesting pitcher on the market after his walk season with the New York Yankees. Super-agent Scott Boras will no doubt want to get the Cubs in on Jacoby Ellsbury and the media will play up the Boston Red Sox connections this front office has with the dynamic (and often injured) outfielder. If they want big-ticket free agents, the Cubs will be in position to strike.

Quail hunting: Heres hoping Sveum doesnt get shot in the ear again and survives his next trip out with old buddy Robin Yount.

Rizzo Effect: Sveum looks at a half-season and projects a 30-homer, 100-RBI force in the middle of the lineup, knowing that the Cubs played their best ball for about a month after Rizzos promotion last summer just before the bottom fell out with a fire sale at the trade deadline.

Sean Manaea: The Cubs have to be right on the second overall pick in the June draft. A desperate need for pitching could lead them to the Indiana State left-hander, who dominated the Cape Cod League last summer, going 5-1 with a 1.22 ERA and notching 85 strikeouts in 51-plus innings. You will read about Mark Appel, but why would the Cubs take the Stanford right-hander at No. 2 if they passed on him last year with the sixth pick? Arkansas right-hander Ryne Stanek should be on the radar, or the Cubs could grab a high school outfielder with a high ceiling, like they did with Almora. The big question will be what the Astros do with the No. 1 pick.

Tommy John recovery: Scott Baker is supposed to be part of the Opening Day rotation, while Arodys Vizcaino will take it slow, likely starting out in Iowa and building up strength before getting promoted to the big leagues. Chang-Yong Lims two-year, minor-league deal was made with 2014 in mind. Epstein has talked about the predictable rehab from reconstructive elbow surgery, the 95-plus percent success rate, so look for the Cubs to keep taking chances on these types of pitchers.

Unchained: Thats how Samardzija views the 2013 season free from innings limits. There wont be another precautionary shutdown. The expectations are 200 innings, year after year after year, for a potential No. 1 starter.

Votto Watch: The Cincinnati Reds are going for it, adding Shin-Soo Choo to hit leadoff and play center and seeing how Aroldis Chapmans 100 mph heat will play as a starter. They won 97 games last year even with a down season from the 2010 National League MVP and that got manager Dusty Baker extended through 2014. If Joey Vottos surgically repaired left knee is 100 percent, this could be the runaway division winner.

Walkaway point: The Anibal Sanchez pursuit showed the industry and fan base that the Cubs are willing to get serious about big-time free agents and end it when the price no longer makes sense to them. That was 77.5 million for Sanchez, who got 80 million over five years from the Detroit Tigers. That wont be the last time the Cubs finish second in those kinds of negotiations.

X-factor: The infusion of television money has completely changed the landscape, lifting up smaller-market franchises and creating a new class of uber-rich teams. The Cubs can opt out of their WGN contract after the 2014 season, and you can be certain theyll be trying to lay the groundwork for a new monster deal. Stay tuned to find out if that means a new network will be in play.

Yadier Molina: The St. Louis Cardinals are loaded with young arms and their pitching-and-defense identity revolves around the best catcher on the planet. The last time the Cardinals lost 101 games was 1907. They havent hit 90 losses since 1976. This is a model franchise that wont go away when the Cubs get good again.

Z: Will anyone take a chance on Carlos Zambrano?

CubsTalk Podcast: Reacting to Kyle Schwarber's demotion and Mike Montgomery on his evolution

CubsTalk Podcast: Reacting to Kyle Schwarber's demotion and Mike Montgomery on his evolution

Tony Andracki, Scott Changnon and Jeff Nelson react in real time to the breaking news that Kyle Schwarber was demoted to the minor leagues. Plus, the trio play around with expansion drafts and who the most indispensable players on the Cubs are.

[RELATED - Inside the numbers on Schwarber's season-long struggles]

Patrick Mooney also goes 1-on-1 with Cubs swingman southpaw Mike Montgomery about the lanky lefty’s role and how he got here.

Check out the entire Podcast here.

Inside the Numbers: Kyle Schwarber's season-long struggle

Inside the Numbers: Kyle Schwarber's season-long struggle

The struggle is real for Kyle Schwarber.

The Cubs demoted their slumping slugger Thursday morning, sending Schwarber to Triple-A Iowa at the same time they put Jason Heyward on the disabled list. 

Let's break down the numbers behind Schwarber's season-long struggles:

.171 

Schwarber's batting average, which was the lowest among qualified hitters in Major League Baseball by a whopping 17 points (Alex Gordon — .188).

In the new age of baseball, batting average has become almost completely useless in telling the story of a hitter's value, especially with home runs flying out of the ballpark.

But to put this average in perspective, Bill Bergen — widely considered the worst hitter in baseball history — hit .170 for his entire career, though he also posted a ridiculous .395 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) thanks to a .194 on-base percentage and .201 slugging.

38

In 2016, the lowest batting average for a qualified hitter was .209 by Danny Espinosa of the Washington Nationals.

That means Schwarber would've needed to raise his batting average 38 points just to meet Espinosa's mark from last season.

The last qualified player to hit below .200 in a season was Baltimore's Chris Davis in 2014 with a .196 average (but he also had a .704 OPS).

17

Like we said, baseball is a different game nowadays and batting average doesn't tell the whole story.

Despite his MLB-low average, Schwarber actually had only the 17th-lowest OPS in the game, ahead of guys like Albert Pujols, Tim Anderson, Carlos Gonzalez, Rougned Odor and Dansby Swanson. Fellow Cub Addison Russell is one point higher with a .674 OPS.

Schwarber helped his own case by posting a .295 on-base percentage (124 points above his batting average) and .378 slugging. 

13.8 

That's Schwarber's walk rate, drawing a free pass in 13.8 percent of his plate appearances. That's the exact same rate as Anthony Rizzo, who has a .393 on-base percentage. 

Only Kris Bryant is higher among Cubs regulars (15.7 percent) and Schwarber's walk percentage is tied for the 20th-best rate in the majors, ahead of Miguel Cabrera (13.2 percent) and Dexter Fowler (12.1 percent).

189

Schwarber was on pace to strike out 189 times over the course of a 162-game season. That would've come in as the fourth-highest whiff total of 2016, behind Davis (219), Chris Carter (206) and Mike Napoli (194).

But Schwarber has always been a big strikeout guy, whiffing 28.6 percent of the time in his career. That rate is at 28.7 percent in 2017. 

In 2015, Schwrber struck out 28.2 percent of the time and still posted an 842 OPS, so it's not like he can't be successful with this whiff rate.

-7/-7.7

The first number (-7 percent) is the increase in soft contact percentage from Schwarber's 2015 season (15.4 percent) to this year (22.4 percent). The second number (-7.7 percent) is the decrease in hard-hit contact from 39.7 percent in 2015 to 32 percent this year.

So Schwarber is simply not hitting the ball as hard overall this year, even though he's making contact at essentially the same rate.

.849

That's Schwarber's OPS in June, spanning 46 at-bats. He's only hitting .196 in the month, but he has a .327 OBP and .522 SLG thanks to four homers, three doubles and nine walks. 

The decent start to the month has helped raise Schwarber's season OPS from .627 to .673, but it was really the month of May that did America's Large Adult Son in: .120/.232/.337 in 83 May at-bats, good for a .569 OPS.

1.056 

In the first 12 games of June, Schwarber posted a 1.056 OPS thanks to a .250/.368/.688 slash line and four homers. It was that start that helped give Joe Maddon more confidence to move Schwarber around in the order, including hitting third Wednesday behind Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant.

But since that hot start to June, Schwarber is only 1-for-14 with a double in five games (four starts), sinking his season OPS 20 points from .693 to .673.

.104

Schwarber's batting average on balls in play (BABIP) for over a month, from May 10 to June 13. Schwarber racked up 98 plate appearances (84 at-bats) and had 30 strikeouts and six homers (which don't count toward BABIP), so he collected five hits in 48 balls put in play. 

Put another way: Schwarber had three singles in roughly five weeks of play (27 games). That's insanely bad luck, even factoring in the shift teams pull against the left-handed slugger, putting three defenders on the right side of the field.

During that stretch, Schwarber was an extreme three true outcome guy, with half his plate appearances (49) resulting in either a home run, a walk or a strikeout.

Schwarber's season BABIP is .193, a far cry from his .242 career mark. No other Cubs position player has a BABIP under .235 (Zobrist) on the year.

.221/.336/.456

Ending on a positive: This is Schwarber's batting line over the course of his career, including playoffs. That's a .792 OPS, even when factoring in this year's struggles. It also includes 33 HR and 81 RBI.

It also comes over 502 at-bats (590 plate appearances), essentially a full season's worth of action.