The education of Kyle Hendricks and why Cubs won’t overreact to a slow start

The education of Kyle Hendricks and why Cubs won’t overreact to a slow start

Kyle Hendricks was coming off a breakthrough season where he had been the organization’s minor league pitcher of the year when the Cubs invited him to their rookie development program in Chicago.

Coordinated with Cubs Convention in January 2014 – to give prospects a sense of the market’s rabid fan base and media spotlight – Hendricks sat down with scouting/player development chief Jason McLeod and farm director Jaron Madison inside the team’s Clark Street offices.

“We were doing his offseason player plan with him,” McLeod recalled. “We take a lot of pride in putting these things together, strengths and weaknesses, and so we give Kyle his and I’m doing the intro: ‘Well, obviously, it was a great year you’ve had, winning pitcher of the year, not that there were many weaknesses to what you did…’

“He like almost cut me off and he goes: ‘No, I think there were plenty of weaknesses.’ He didn’t say this, but he almost had a look on his face like: ‘This is all you got?’”

This was days before the New York Yankees would win the Masahiro Tanaka sweepstakes, and Hendricks had only six starts above the Double-A level on his resume. By that July, Hendricks would step into a rotation that took a short-term hit when the Cubs shipped Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel to the Oakland A’s in the Addison Russell trade.  

“They were giving me s--- for that,” Hendricks said with a laugh. “There were a few things I pointed out. It caught them by surprise. They told me all this good stuff, and I was like: ‘Where is the stuff I need to work on?’ It was pretty funny.”

The education of Hendricks, who has a degree in economics from Dartmouth College, never stops. He does yoga, focuses on breathing and absorbs scouting reports. He doesn’t need to look at the scoreboard or the radar gun to know when something is off.

“Kyle is still not on top of his game yet,” manager Joe Maddon said in the Wrigley Field interview room after Wednesday’s 7-4 comeback win over the Milwaukee Brewers. “I would say more than anything it would be the velocity.

“It’s all there – he’s not injured, he feels good. He threw one 86-mph fastball right by (Eric) Thames, only because he had been below that, and all of a sudden that’s 86. My point is, when he gets back to 87-88, then you’re going to see that greater separation between the fastball and the changeup.

“Right now, there’s not a dramatic separation between the two pitches, and that’s where the disconnect is for him now. I’m fully confident that he’s going to get that uptick in velocity back. And then you’ll see that greater separation, and then you see the bad swings.” 

It would be impossible to expect Hendricks to match the 2.13 ERA he put up last season, an incredible combination of Ivy League smarts, mechanics in alignment and soaring confidence. Jake Arrieta played a similar game of expectations last year after winning a Cy Young Award and still managed to beat the Cleveland Indians twice in the World Series.

So the Cubs certainly aren’t going to overreact to three not-great starts in April where Hendricks has gone only five innings twice and given up three or four runs each time, leaving him with a 6.19 ERA. The Cubs have won two of those three starts, and slotting Hendricks fifth in the rotation did create an eight-day layoff to start the season.

Last year’s third-place finish in the National League Cy Young Award voting generated the most attention, but look at this 75-start sample (plus one relief appearance) for Hendricks in a Cubs uniform heading into this season: 31-17, 2.92 ERA, 1.070 WHIP.

Check out four of the first six names that pop up under “Similarity Scores” on Hendricks’ Baseball-Reference page: New York Mets aces Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey and Noah Syndergaard, plus Tanaka.  

“The biggest thing that will get you in trouble is that you try to top that,” Jon Lester said. “Instead of a 2.2 or a 2.1 (ERA), it’s ‘I want a 1.8’ and you start kind of putting that in your mind. That’s why, for me, I’ve always just tried to stay with that 200-inning goal. Make every start and (reach) 200 innings, because I know that I’ll be somewhere around where I normally am.

“You’re going to have years like last year where Kyle wins (16) games and he has a (2.13 ERA). And then you’re going to have years where you get your butt kicked and you’re kind of doing the same stuff and you don’t really know why. You just try to maintain. (And) at the end of the year, you look up and you’re right there.

“We kind of know who (Kyle) is and what to expect. He made some really big adjustments for himself last year that obviously worked. So now it’s a matter of: Is the league going to adjust to him with them seeing him a couple times? He’s a smart kid. He knows. He makes really good in-game adjustments.

“The sky’s the limit. Is he going to have the 2.1? Who knows? We have a really good defense and I know that saved a lot of runs for us last year.”   

The Associated Press reported Major League Baseball Advanced Media is now using Statcast instead of PITCHf/x to report velocities, which has led to some upticks around the game. Here’s how FanGraphs has clocked Hendricks’ average fastball since 2015: 88.3, 87.8 and 85.4 mph.

Hendricks – who led the majors with a .581 opponents’ OPS last year – has given up four homers in 16 innings this season. As a control/command pitcher, Hendricks walked four Brewers during Wednesday’s no-decision, including pitcher Tommy Milone on four pitches.   

“Overall, still just need to kind of find that groove and lock it in,” Hendricks said. “My mechanics have been a little off, I’ve noticed, the last two weeks or so. I ramped up my throwing, so maybe throwing more has caused that. I just got to find the right balance right now.

“I just don’t feel strong out there, so I got to get my arm strength and feel like I can step on it (and) get the velocity back. And then from there, my changeup will just play off it.”

Hendricks emerged last year as the ace we didn’t see coming, allowing three earned runs or less in 22 straight starts from May 22 to Sept. 26, beating Clayton Kershaw and the Los Angeles Dodgers the night the Cubs won their first pennant in 71 years and starting an epic World Series Game 7.

“That’s kind of been my MO – I’ve always been a slow starter,” Hendricks said. “You don’t like to be that way. You’re always trying to combat that. But, again, I felt good in spring. It just hasn’t transitioned yet. It’s staying with the process. I know what I have to do.”

Preview: Cubs open series vs. Red Sox tonight on CSN Plus

Preview: Cubs open series vs. Red Sox tonight on CSN Plus

The Cubs take on the Boston Red Sox tonight, and you can catch all the action on CSN and live streaming on CSNChicago.com and the NBC Sports App.

Coverage begins with Cubs Pregame Live at 6 p.m. Then catch first pitch with Len Kasper and Jim Deshaies. Be sure to stick around after the final out to get analysis and player reaction on Cubs Postgame Live.

Today’s starting pitching matchup: Jake Arrieta (3-0, 3.65 ERA) vs. Drew Pomeranz (1-1, 4.60 ERA)

Click here for more stats to make sure you’re ready for the action.  

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CubsTalk Podcast: Top prospect update

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CubsTalk Podcast: Top prospect update

Mick Gillispie — the broadcaster for the Double-A Tennessee Smokies as well as the Cubs' spring training broadcaster — joins Tony Andracki to break down some of the organization's top prospects, analyzing the beginning of the 2017 season for guys Ian Happ, Duane Underwood, Eloy Jimenez, Chesny Young, Victor Caratini and Trevor Clifton.

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