Chicago Cubs

Kap: Analyzing potential Cubs draft picks

theo-epstein-slide-photo.png

Kap: Analyzing potential Cubs draft picks

In a little over a month, spring training begins for Major League Baseball. With this comes the next step in Theo Epstein’s plan to build a foundation for sustained success on the North Side. Granted, the Cubs did make a few splashes in the free agent market with the signings of pitchers like Scott Baker, Kyuji Fujikawa and Edwin Jackson, but the North Siders still have a ways to go before they even think about the playoffs. Yes, their pitching has the potential to be much better than it was last season, but there are other players that still need to develop. There are a lot of young guys in the farm system that still need to improve and mature before we talk about playoffs for the Cubs. In addition, not only do Theo and Jed Hoyer need to succeed in the free agent market, they need to be successful in the first year player draft, which takes place this year from June 6th-8th.


I spoke with Conor Glassey from Baseball America about the 2013 draft and he said this is a rather weak draft compared to other classes. There is not a Bryce Harper or Stephen Strasburg-type of prospect in this draft, but there are some good players who do have some big time potential.


In the draft, the Cubs will have the second overall pick behind only the Houston Astros and it is widely expected that they will look to add pitching with the majority of their selections. Here is a look at the top prospects that should be under consideration come draft day:


1. Mark Appel (RHP) - This is not Appel’s first time entering the draft. He was originally drafted by the Tigers out of high school but opted to go to college. Last year, he was drafted 8th overall by the Pirates but he turned down $3.3 million to keep pitching at Stanford. In three years at Stanford, Appel has gone 18-10 with a 3.22 ERA. He has 242 strikeouts compared to 78 walks in 271.1 innings of work. He does not allow home runs, either, surrendering only three in 110 innings last season. Appel has drawn comparisons to Tampa Bay Rays star David Price and at 6-foot-4, 195 pounds, Glassey describes Appel as a big, physical workhorse. His fastball can reach the upper-90s with solid movement to it and he has a hard mid-80s breaking ball to go with it. His career has been filled with ups and downs at Stanford and these struggles lead to the big question: Why haven’t the results matched the package? At times, Appel’s fastball tends to straighten out and in order to be a big time pitcher in the majors, his command must improve. He cannot throw around the plate as much as he does and he needs to mix up his pitches. If he can accomplish this, he can easily be an ace for a team. If he doesn’t, he will be a No. 3 or 4 at best, according to the scouts that I spoke with.


2. Ryne Stanek (RHP) - Last year, in his sophomore season at Arkansas, Stanek started 17 games and accumulated a record of 8-4 with a 2.82 ERA while striking out 82 batters in 92.2 innings. He was originally drafted 99th overall out of high school by the Mariners, but he optioned to attend college. Stanek throws a fastball in the mid-90s and he maintains that velocity throughout his starts. He also throws a slider which stays in the mid-80s and a changeup. Scouts say that his command is good, but with a three-quarters arm delivery and a tendency to overthrow at times has some wondering if his arm action is a cause for concern. There is no question that the guy has a big, powerful arm, but if he does not fix his command and mechanics, Stanek may have a career as a relief pitcher.


3. Austin Meadows (OF/1B) - Meadows is considered one of the top two prospects coming out of high school. He has the potential to be a great five-tool player and his body frame is one that shows a potential for power. If he grows into it, he has the skill set to be a player similar to Josh Hamilton. Solid bats are scarce in this draft, which makes Meadows' draft stock even higher. He can hit to all fields and has speed to go with it, he has a nice arm and good range when it comes to covering the outfield, which will allow him to play all three spots. Meadows has a short, quick swing but it has a slight uppercut to it, which can lead to frequent pop-ups. The power for Meadows is off the charts and when he gets a hold of it, the ball jumps off of his bat. If he continues to develop, Meadows can be a 30 HR type of player.

 
4. Sean Manaea (LHP) - Manaea is not as polished as Stanek or Appel, but he is still very attractive to scouts because as a 6-foot-5 lefty, he lights up the radar gun with a fastball that reaches 96 mph. He has a slurve to go with it, but it is not as consistent of a pitch as it will need to be in the big leagues. Manaea burst onto the scene last summer while playing in the Cape Cod League. In eight starts, he went 5-1 with a 1.22 ERA and 85 strikeouts in only 57.1 innings of work. Being a lefty with a low three-quarters delivery, Manaea has drawn comparisons to Chris Sale, according to Glassey. The big question mark in evaluations of him is that the big lefty burst onto the scene late, which means he is still raw and he is not as much of a proven talent like some of the other prospects at the top of the draft boards. Glassey said, “Manaea has a low level track record. Pitching at Indiana State puts a little bit of a question mark around his projections.” Whoever picks Manaea is taking a little bit of a gamble, but if it works out it can pay off big time as he has tremendous long-term potential.


5. Clint Frazier (OF) - All of the things said about Meadows, you can say about Frazier, minus the size. At 6-foot-1 and 190 pounds, Frazier is not as big but he still has power because of his electric bat speed. He is very aggressive at the plate and loads his hands in a way that simply looks like he wants to kill the baseball. The ball explodes off of his bat when he gets a hold of it. During his junior season, Frazier hit .424 with 24 home runs and 14 stolen bases in 118 at-bats. Despite his size, he can still be a middle-of-the-lineup type of hitter. To go along with his bat, Frazier has an attractive arm. He was clocked at 98 mph when throwing from center field and scouts have compared him to Mike Trout. Meadows and Frazier grew up in the same town in Georgia, but they went to different schools so when they meet up this upcoming season you can bet hundreds of scouts will head down there to watch these two.


6. Kohl Stewart (RHP/OF/3B) - Stewart is the best high school pitcher in this year’s draft. The question is what sport is he going to play? Stewart has committed to Texas A&M to play football and baseball. His health is also a small concern because he is a Type 1 diabetic. If Stewart sticks with baseball, it will probably be as a pitcher. I spoke with Jonathan Mayo from MLB.com and he said, “There is a lot to like because the kid can flat out throw.” He throws a fastball in the mid-90s with sinking and tailing action along with a slider that stays between 84 and 86 mph. His third pitch is a changeup that he mixes in well. Stewart tends to hang his slider at times, but it has the potential to develop along with his fastball and changeup. Mayo added that Stewart has the most upside of any high school pitcher, but again, the only thing that scouts need to find out is which sport it is that he wants to play.


7. Kris Bryant (3B) - Teams looking for the best power bat out of college should not look past Kris Bryant. He led Team USA this past summer in slugging percentage and has easy plus power to go along with the ability to hit the ball to all fields. There is some question as to whether or not he will have to move to first when he advances to the major league level, but Mayo feels that since he has a strong arm he will be a more intriguing prospect if he stays at the hot corner. Just like many power hitters, Bryant does swing and miss a lot, but he does have a good idea of what he is doing at the plate and he can draw walks with 40-homer potential. In his sophomore year at San Diego, he hit .366 with 17 doubles, 14 home runs and 56 runs batted in. With the potential power that he presents, there is no doubt a team will take a chance on him early in the draft.


8. Trey Ball (LHP/OF) - With Trey Ball, whoever drafts him gets two options for the price of one. He can hit and he has potential power if he matures. He has a smooth swing and can hit to the opposite field. He gets compared to Shawn Green as a hitter. As a pitcher, he has a loose, quick delivery with his fastball reaching the low-90s with a little sink. The changeup is his best second pitch, but he also throws a slow curve and a harder slider which reaches the mid-80s. He is the top two-way prospect in the draft, but according to Mayo, scouts may have to wait until spring to see which way he goes. Right now, he has more value as a pitcher.


9. Austin Wilson (OF) - One of the best college bats in the class behind Bryant. At 6-foot-5 and 245 pounds, he resembles Marlins outfielder Giancarlo Stanton. He does not have Stanton’s power, but he can prove to be as every bit of a valuable talent if he can reach his potential. As a freshman at Stanford, Wilson hit .311 with 5 homers and 30 RBIs. He struggled his sophomore year as his average dropped to .283. He did do better in other aspects. Wilson hit 10 home runs, drew 24 walks and showed better discipline at the plate while cutting down on his strikeouts, but it still needs to improve. Wilson’s swing is simple and clean and it generates some good bat speed. His arm was clocked at 98 mph out of the outfield. At the next level, Wilson would be a corner outfielder. As long as his batting average doesn’t continue to drop and the BB:K ratio improves, Wilson can be a special talent.


10. Colin Moran (3B) - Moran is a big, strong, left-handed hitting third baseman out of Chapel Hill. He is a pure hitter and has the tools to succeed, he just needs to develop them as he matures. As a freshman at North Carolina, he hit .335 with 71 RBIs on his way to Baseball America's Freshman of the Year and First-Team All-American. In 2012, he hit .365 but he only hit three home runs compared to nine his freshman year. Despite the “slump”, he still showed solid patience at the plate with a 21:24 BB:K ratio. In his second straight summer in the Cape Cod League, he led the league in runs batted in with 42 and was selected to his second Cape Cod League All-Star Game. With Moran, it is all about the bat. He will be an average fielder at the next level. If he shows the power he had his freshman year, Moran will not have to wait long to hear his name in the draft come June.


Looking at all of these prospects, it is obvious the Cubs have a lot to choose from. Should they go with a pitcher or a potential power hitter? Then when they choose which way they want to go, they have to decipher between which guy they think will pan out the best, which is extremely tough to do at times. Look at a guy like Mark Prior. He was expected to be a top pitcher for the Cubs for year, but things didn't exactly turn out that way.


No doubt Theo’s job is tough. But that is why the Cubs brought in him here. They need him to make the big decisions like this so that down the line, one of these prospects will hopefully be part of the formula that will finally bring a World Series to the North Side.

Jordan Carstens contributed to this article.

If Kyle Schwarber's back, the rest of the National League will have another reason to worry about the second-half Cubs

If Kyle Schwarber's back, the rest of the National League will have another reason to worry about the second-half Cubs

Kyle Schwarber’s proper introduction to the Cubs-Sox rivalry came in the summer of 2015 when a fan on the South Side threw a half-empty “tall boy” at him in left field. A little more than a year removed from college, Schwarber didn’t understand why someone wouldn’t finish all the beer first.  

David Ross chimed in, raising his voice loud enough so Schwarber and a group of reporters could hear him inside the visiting clubhouse: “You should have shotgunned it and then went over there and found him.

“I tell you what: I’d hate to try to wrap up Kyle Schwarber. I guarantee you that whoever threw that beer doesn’t want (any) part of Kyle Schwarber. I promise you that one.”

That was the rookie orientation before Schwarber: blasted five playoff home runs that October; suffered a devastating knee injury that almost wiped out his entire 2016 season; made a dramatic return to the World Series; and experienced newfound fame and fortune that would change his life forever.

Mess with Schwarber? That aura of invincibility is gone after his detour to Triple-A Iowa before the All-Star break. But the first-place Cubs will take Thursday night’s 6-3 win over the White Sox as another sign that he is almost back, yet another reason why the defending champs look ready to continue this second-half surge. 

“I told him that if he had a couple more push-ups in there, he would have had three homers tonight, but we’ll take a triple,” winning pitcher Jon Lester said afterward. “Schwarber’s been swinging the bat great since he’s been back.”

No doubt, the Cubs caught the sell-mode White Sox at the right time during the final days leading up to the July 31 trade deadline. Even in going 3-for-4 and blasting his 16th and 17th home runs – which traveled 814 feet combined at Guaranteed Rate Field – Schwarber is still only hitting .191 with 90 strikeouts in 79 games this season.     

But the Cubs have always given Schwarber the benefit of the doubt and will point to his big personality and encouraging numbers since his Triple-A reset ended on July 6, getting on base almost 37 percent of the time and hitting safely in 10 of 13 games with five homers, three doubles and that triple.

“Retrospectively, we should not have expected that much,” manager Joe Maddon admitted. “I’m guilty of that kind of a narrative or a dialogue also, because I was really eager to watch him play a full season of Major League Baseball.

“But the guy missed the whole season and did really well in a small window of time at the end of the year. So maybe my expectations exceeded what they should have been.

“I do believe he is that good. I do believe you’re going to come back and see him play at the level we anticipated. But he might have just needed more time. And we just didn’t recognize that.

“I might have been as guilty as anybody regarding the promotion of that. But I believe in him fully. I know it’s going to happen. There’s been some really good major-league hitters that have gone through the same thing.” 

At this point, the Cubs (54-47) would love to see what kind of wrecking ball Schwarber could be for a half-season. To his credit, Schwarber has been the same throughout all the ups and downs, someone who looks and sounds like a guy you would drink tall boys with.

“I just want to worry about putting the barrel on the ball,” Schwarber said. “I’m just trying to stay within myself, be short (with my swing) and it’s paying off.”

Brewers whiffing on Jose Quintana may have changed everything for Cubs

Brewers whiffing on Jose Quintana may have changed everything for Cubs

The White Sox got close enough to a potential Jose Quintana deal that they almost pulled their ace from his July 8 start at Coors Field. The next day, Theo Epstein got a text message from White Sox general manager Rick Hahn, suddenly reviving a trade discussion the Cubs president assumed was dead after a post-draft check-in that sounded like a formality in June.

If the Chris Sale asking price started at reigning National League MVP Kris Bryant, why would the White Sox want to help the defending World Series champs now?  

The New York Yankees at one point felt close to landing Quintana, the minor-league free agent who left them after the 2011 season and then blossomed into an All-Star on the South Side. The Milwaukee Brewers also had active talks with the White Sox, doing extensive research and background work on one of the game’s most underrated pitchers.

The Brewers will get an up-close look at what they missed on Friday night at Miller Park, where Quintana will stand out as the move that may have changed the entire trajectory of this Cubs season and the future of the NL Central.

“I think it figures in more than you think or may even realize,” manager Joe Maddon said before Thursday’s 6-3 win over the White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field.

While the Cubs have gone 11-2 since the All-Star break, regaining sole possession of first place for the first time since late May, the Brewers endured a 15-2 loss to the Washington Nationals that showed the crash may be coming. With Matt Garza and Chase Anderson on the disabled list, Michael Blazek gave up six home runs in his first career big-league start – at the age of 28 after getting drafted in 2007.

While Quintana’s presence stabilized the rotation and gave the Cubs a shot of adrenaline, the Brewers have seen their 5.5-game lead vanish after a first half where they played way above expectations and projections and ahead of their rebuilding schedule.         

“Getting a new guy, he comes out and he pitches great,” Maddon said, referencing Quintana’s July 16 debut against the Baltimore Orioles where he put up 12 strikeouts and zero walks in seven scoreless innings. “He also set a standard the way he did it – strike throwing, aggressive (and a) calm demeanor. Everything he did out there that day was what you want everybody else to watch.

“So that has a lot to do, I think, with how our starting pitchers have settled down a bit. And then beyond that, just the thought among the group that Theo and (GM) Jed (Hoyer) went out there and got somebody like that.”

The Brewers (54-50) still have more than three full business days until the July 31 trade deadline, one of the industry’s best farm systems and 10 games left against the Cubs. The St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates have also stayed in the picture, hovering around .500 in a weak division that could wind up being very entertaining in September.   

Epstein insisted that trading for Quintana shouldn’t be interpreted as an overreaction to three-and-a-half months where the disappointing Cubs didn’t have the same edge, because his team-friendly contract made this a long-term play through 2020. But the Before and After pictures are striking.

“The trade should be read as a vote of faith in this group,” Epstein said in Baltimore on the first day back from the All-Star break. “Sometimes you can get so wrapped up in what’s happening at the moment – the tough first half that we had – that you fail to take a step back and realize that not only can this be a winning group, it is a winning group.

“These guys just won a World Series. Our goal is to win more World Series with this team. We all felt like to do that there’s a significant rate-limiting step: We had to add starting pitching.

“It looked for a while like there might have to be a trade-off – we might have to take away from this group in order to add the starting pitching. But to be able to make this trade and add a significant starting pitcher without touching the core of this major-league team – or the major-league team at all – should be read as a show of faith and support in this group.”

It’s also impossible to miss the big smile on Quintana’s face. He called the video tribute here “amazing” and said he “almost cried” watching it. He wanted to say thank you to the fans and the entire White Sox organization.       

Without this assist from the White Sox, where would the Cubs be now?

“I miss those guys,” Quintana said. “Now I have to focus on trying to help my team here and try to do my job. It’s a really good opportunity for me to be in first place. I want to do the best I can.”