Steve Stone's mailbag: Can Castro win ROY?

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Steve Stone's mailbag: Can Castro win ROY?

Tuesday, Sept. 7, 2010
12:36 PM

Steve Stone dives into his mailbag to answer your questions about Starlin Castro's Rookie of the Year chances, the effect of Manny Ramirez' presence and more!

Tom, Chicago -- Does Starlin Castro have a good shot at Rookie of the Year? Or do you think he has to win the batting title to achieve that?

Steve Stone: I think Jason Heyward from Atlanta has the best shot of winning. Heyward plays for a first place team, has been hitting towards the top of the order and has displayed lots of power. With his batting average in the .280's and the defense he presents, that could be a problem for Castro. As far as winning the batting title, Castro has to pick up 23 points over Carlos Gonzalez of Colorado who is hitting .340, while Castro sits at .317. I don't think that will happen but it doesn't diminish what Castro has done. He is going to be a terrific player, especially if he starts to remember how many outs are in an inning. Right now he is benched by Mike Quade, which I think is a good thing because it will hit home and show Castro what is expected in the major leagues.

That being said, there are some other great rookies out there that are going to be in the running. Just in the National League, one of the guys coming to mind is Gaby Sanchez; not sure if he still qualifies as a rookie but he is having a great season. Competition this year is pretty stiff; don't forget Buster Posey of the re-surging Giants. He is hitting .326 and the Giants' offensive resurgence as well as their knocking at the door of first place could be directly related to Posey becoming an every day player. It appears there are some exceptional young talents in the majors already and certainly on the horizon. This may be tough for Castro, I don't think he will make rookie of the year but you never know.

Ronnie, Westmont, IL -- Ted Lilly always impressed me during his time with the Cubs, do you think there is a chance that they bring him back next season as a free agent?

Steve Stone: I think the Cubs are going to reduce a bit. If you could tell me that the Cubs would be able to trade Zambrano, Fukudome, or Silva without eating too much money, then I would tell you that, yes, there is a good chance they may go after Ted. I think Lilly will be looking for a multi-year contract and wont find that with the Cubs.

Trace, Santa Barbara, CA -- Is Manny Ramirez's presence in the White Sox lineup enough to push the team past the Twins and into the playoffs?

Steve Stone: I think Manny's presence is a good thing. I don't think he can hurt your ball club at all for a month. I would like to see him get a base hit to drive in a run, which he has not done yet. He is hitting unbelievably well; Manny has always been a clutch player. I don't think the Sox have the Manny that hit .349 (in 2002), but I don't think it hurts at all. The Sox are just looking for him to drive in some runs and occasionally hit it out the ball park; which should be easy in US Cellular. With the philosophy that Manny cant hurt, I think it was a pretty good addition to the baseball team and now we will see if he can generate some run production and some power.

Pat, Highland, Ind. -- Do you think Chris Sale has the stuff to be the White Sox closer next season?

Steve Stone: I don't think he will be the closer next season. He does have the stuff to be a closer but he has always been a starting pitcher and there is no reason to think he can't be a starter at the big league level. It would be very difficult to have both your premiere setup man and your closer to be lefty. Sale is too young to put a designated tag on what he will be. Sometimes it comes down to where the ball club needs him. If you count on Peavy coming back and Garcia, I count 7 starting candidates for next year's rotation, but obviously you will go with 5. Then you go to the idea of trading and it would be a substantial trade because these guys are pretty good. There are some tough questions that have to be answered. A lot depends on dollars that you can spend and what you think you can get in return for some of the talent. If you have the enviable position of having too many starting pitchers, there will be a team that would love to take one off your hands.

Ernie, Chicago -- Who are your picks for Cy Young this season? (Ernie - Chicago, IL)

Steve Stone: The fashionable pick among the sabermetric community is Felix Hernandez of Seattle because he is going to be first or second in strikeouts, first or second in ERA, first or second in quality starts, and most likely first in innings pitched. In looking at those numbers, if the vote were today, and it's not, you would lean towards a guy having a terrific year with a contending baseball team. So I go to a guy leading the league in victories (19-5), who is 5th in ERA (3.02), second in innings pitched, second in quality starts, and will likely strike out 200 men this year. That man is the gigantic CC Sabathia, who will likely be the first major league pitcher to win 20 games this year.

And as long as we are on the subject of Cy Young awards, I will throw in an extra bonus for you and we will talk about the National League, where it really gets tough. When looking at all categories this is one of those years that the victory list doesn't add up all that well with the ERA list. Though you could make a case for Adam Wainwright, you could also make a case for Chris Carpenter or Ubaldo Jiminez who, though the second half of the year has been difficult for him, has still compiled an 18-6 record with a 2.79 ERA.

My Cy Young Vote, which will be decided down to the wire, would be Roy Halladay. Roy is 17-10 with many losses due to lack of support. As of this writing, he leads the National League in strikeouts and, by a wide margin, innings pitched. He is two off the lead in quality starts and has a 2.36 ERA, which before the end of the season may drop even lower. You must also consider the miniature ballpark he plays in, compared to Latos of San Diego, Hudson of Atlanta, Johnson of Florida, and Wainwright and Garcia of St. Louis who all pitch in very pitcher friendly ball parks. Conversely Roy Halladay pitches in home run bay. He has also completed 8 games, which places him number one in a category that everybody seems to have forgotten about.

This is the identity of the 2017 Cubs so far: 'Up and down, up and down'

This is the identity of the 2017 Cubs so far: 'Up and down, up and down'

MIAMI – The Cubs are the defending champs, but at the moment they really don’t have much of an identity beyond that, unsure what they can count on from one game to the next, waiting to get healthy and still searching for that sense of rhythm 45 percent into the season.

This is a 37-36 team dealing with injuries near the top of the rotation (Kyle Hendricks), the middle of the lineup (Ben Zobrist) and the heart of the defense (Jason Heyward) while a World Series legend (Kyle Schwarber) gets a few days to clear his head before reporting to Triple-A Iowa.

Just when it looks like the rotation is gathering strength, the offense went missing again during Friday’s 2-0 loss at Marlins Park, the night after the Cubs scored 11 runs in Miami and talked about it as the type of game that can create momentum.

“The difference 24 hours can make,” manager Joe Maddon said.

But this has been building for almost three full months. The Cubs have been shut out six times already and at the .500 mark at 15 different points this season.

The good news: John Lackey hit 94 mph and has put together back-to-back quality starts for a starting five with a 2.35 ERA the last two turns through the rotation. The 10 games before that, the Cubs rotation put up a 5.65 ERA, but neither trend has really changed the overall picture in a weak National League Central. 

“That’s where it all starts, for sure,” Lackey said. “If you’re going to be a consistent winning team, you got to have good starting pitching, because the offense can kind of come and go.

“You got to remember they’re pretty young. We got a lot of guys still learning, still making adjustments in the game. But the talent’s there, so you like our chances in the end for those guys to do good stuff.”  

The bad news: Lackey had no margin for error as the Marlins needed only three hits to score two runs (one earned). Lackey gave up his 21st home run – he allowed 23 in almost 190 innings last year – in the third inning when Giancarlo Stanton launched an 83-mph pitch 458 feet beyond the garish pink-flamingos-and-palm-trees sculpture.   

Defense was supposed to be the constant with this team, but the Marlins manufactured an insurance run in the sixth inning when Dee Gordon stole second base off Lackey and catcher Miguel Montero threw the ball away, setting up Christian Yelich’s sacrifice fly.   

“I certainly have all the confidence in the world in everybody here,” reigning NL MVP Kris Bryant said. “Last year was a great year for us. Everybody just seemed to be hitting at the right time, pitching good at the right time. Everything clicked.

“This season hasn’t been that way. You look at many players – and many Hall of Fame players – they’ve had some down years here and there. It just kind of seems like as a group we’re a little down right now, but plenty of time to turn it around.”

Ian Happ and Javier Baez accounted for four of the six hits against right-hander Jose Urena and three different relievers as the Cubs hit into three double plays, struck out seven times and followed the same pattern.  

“Our offense is just like you saw – up and down, up and down,” Maddon said. “It is youthful. Listen, I don’t want to keep saying that, but it’s true. It just is. These guys need more at-bats to figure out what to not swing at and how to battle.”

Joe Maddon on Ian Happ: ‘Pound for pound, man, he’s got as good a power as I’ve seen’

Joe Maddon on Ian Happ: ‘Pound for pound, man, he’s got as good a power as I’ve seen’

MIAMI – The Cubs factored Ian Happ into their preseason plans, hoping he could give the team a shot of adrenaline at some point and play well enough to be marketed as a trade chip in a blockbuster deal for pitching.

But the Cubs couldn’t have projected this for late June: Happ batting third behind Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant, the switch-hitting presence and middle-of-the-order force needed with Ben Zobrist on the disabled list and Kyle Schwarber about to get a mental reset at Triple-A Iowa.

“Pound for pound, man, he’s got as good a power as I’ve seen, when you look at the size and how far the ball goes,” manager Joe Maddon said Friday at Marlins Park. “It’s a unique combination of size and strength. You normally see a bigger guy with that kind of juice."

Happ (6-foot, 205 pounds) also patrolled right field that night – one of four different positions the rookie has handled so far – with Gold Glove defender Jason Heyward also on the disabled list and the Cubs in scramble mode.

The Schwarber demotion is a reminder of how hard this game is, how quickly it can spin out of control and how small sample sizes can be misleading, even on the biggest stages against some of the best pitchers on the planet.

But check out Happ’s first six weeks in The Show projected as a 162-game average on Baseball-Reference.com: 46 homers, 97 RBI, .916 OPS and 199 strikeouts.

“He’s just really interesting,” Maddon said. “Now you’re seeing him hit better from the right side, too, which is really going to matter. That really makes him a threat. You put him in the lineup based on that.”

The shorthanded Cubs have needed Happ – at the age of 22 – to protect Bryzzo Souvenir Co., add another layer of Zobrist versatility and learn it all on the fly for a team with World Series expectations.

“He’s pretty self-confident,” Maddon said. “There’s times I can tell when it’s beating him up a little bit when he goes through some of those funks where maybe he’s chasing pitches out of the zone. But he seems to rebound very quickly. Strong-minded. Strong-willed. Very confident individual.”

[MORE CUBS: Cubs hopeful Kyle Hendricks returns before All-Star break]

Two weeks into Happ’s big-league career, Maddon got questions about how long the Cubs will be patient and what they would need to see out of him before thinking about a return trip to Des Moines.

Though Happ was hitting .207 as recently as last week, his average has jumped roughly 40 points. He’s homered eight times in his last 14 starts. Fifteen of his 21 RBI have come with two outs. His OPS hasn’t fallen below .741 at any point this season.

“That’s adjusting,” Maddon said. “You get here, nobody really knows you, they throw you pitches, you hit ‘em well. And all of a sudden, you stop seeing those pitches. You’re not going to see them again until you stop swinging at the stuff that they want you to swing at.

“He’s done a pretty good job of laying off the bad stuff. That’s why it’s coming back to him. He’s really reorganized the strike zone here.”

That whole process sped up on Schwarber, who lost the swagger and the ability to crush fastballs that made him such a dangerous hitter. Happ doesn’t have it all figured out, but by the look on his face and the sound of his voice, you would have no idea whether or not he’s hitting. 

“Unbelievable guy,” said Happ, who’s tight with Schwarber. “He’ll go down, rake, be back soon and do what he’s capable of doing, which is hitting the ball hard all over the ballpark. He’s done it his whole life. And he’ll continue to do it.”