Finally, rotation's turn to take hit in value survey

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Finally, rotation's turn to take hit in value survey

Saturday, Sept. 17, 2011Posted: 9:35 p.m.

By Brett Ballantini
CSNChicago.com White Sox InsiderFollow @CSNChi_Beatnik
With thousands of measurements in baseball, from wins and batting average to FIP and OPS, but none of those measures take into account the actual value a player brings to a team. Isn't someone who hits 20 home runs but makes just 500,000 a better value than someone who also clocks 20 but makes 10 million? Every 10 games this season, CSNChicago will run a value survey that details just what the Chicago White Sox are getting for their money a report more essential than ever, given the team-record payroll. At game 150, this is the last in-season survey of 2011, and the results wont be pretty. Going 2-8 over the past 10 and in the process getting eliminated from playoff contention is one thing, but how the White Sox lost eight of 10 is the issue. The starting rotation has been the strongest aspect of the ballclub, but with rare exception has completely collapsed in the stretch.
What follows is a survey that you won't find anywhere else in the baseball world, a snapshot that attempts to marry actual costs of players against the value they provide the team on the field. Arguably, this player value trumps any you'd find on the back of a baseball card. Using raw WAR (Wins Above Replacement) data from FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference and prorated salary tells us which side of the ledger player or management is benefiting more from each players performance. A plus figure means the player has provided more value than hes been paid, a negative one means hes provided less. White Sox Bargains Players who are providing value on top of what they are costing the team in salary. (Last survey standing in parenthesis, a negative number indicates the player was on the "busts" list and a plain - meaning the player did not appear in the last survey.)

1. Alexei Ramirez, ss, 11,820,935 (1)
2. Phil Humber, sp, 11,319,084 (2)
3. Carlos Quentin, of, 7,139,908 (3)
4. Alejandro De Aza, of, 6,969,972 (9)
5. Brent Lillibridge, of-if, 5,957,508 (4)
6. Chris Sale, rp, 5,595,350 (5)
7. Gavin Floyd, sp, 5,234,070 (7)
8. Sergio Santos, rp, 5,077,229 (6)
9. Edwin Jackson, sp, 4,044,609 (11)
10. Gordon Beckham, 2b, 3,937,210 (14)
11. Jesse Crain, rp, 2,911,190 (12)
12. Paul Konerko, 1b, 2,449,784 (8)
13. John Danks, sp, 2,429,200 (10)
14. A.J. Pierzynski, c, 2,400,045 (13)
15. Zach Stewart, p, 1,944,085 (15)
16. Brent Morel, 3b, 1,765,037 (-16)
17. Tyler Flowers, c, 748,559 (16)
18. Dayan Viciedo, of-if, 677,593 (18)
19. Dylan Axelrod, p, 529,892 (-)
20. Jeff Gray, rp, 376,631 (20)
21. Addison Reed, rp, 334,176 (-18)
22. Ramon Castro, c, 276,309 (19)
23. Hector Santiago, rp, 227,204 (22)
24. Eduardo Escobar, if, 32,425 (-14)

In a development that bodes well for the 2012 White Sox, several callups have worked their way into the black, bringing the total tally to 24 of 42 players posting a profit for the White Sox. And De Aza continues a mercurial move toward the top of the value list, jumping from ninth to fourth overall and threatening to bypass seasonlong No. 2 batter Quentin before September expires.

White Sox Busts Players who value cannot offset what they are costing the team in salary. (Last survey standing in parenthesis, a "" means the player was on the "bargains" list and a plain - meaning the player did not appear in the last survey.)

1. Adam Dunn, dh, -21,540,699 (1)
2. Alex Rios, of, -18,318,097 (2)
3. Jake Peavy, sp, -7,926,808 (3)
4. Mark Teahen, if-of, -4,856,093 (4)
5. Omar Vizquel, if, -4,261,243 (5)
6. Mark Buehrle, sp, -2,043,065 (17)
7. Juan Pierre, of, -1,944,498 (6)
8. Tony Pena, rp, -1,716,459 (7)
9. Matt Thornton, rp, -1,564,563 (12)
10. Lastings Milledge, of, -1,492,442 (9)
11. Brian Bruney, rp, -1,409,542 (8)
12. Dallas McPherson, 1b-3b, -1,044,859 (10)
13. Will Ohman, rp, -645,280 (15)
14. Jason Frasor, rp, -564,524 (11)
15. Shane Lindsay, rp, -482,789 (13)
16. Lucas Harrell, rp, -261,543 (17)
17. Donny Lucy, c, -155,868 (19)
18. Josh Kinney, rp, -66,515 (21)

Approaching 40 million in combined lost value, Dunn and Rios remain 1-2 at the top of bum values, well outpacing the other 16 poor White Sox values combined. In an alarming development given his need for a new contract, Buehrles September swoon has thrust him from a good value (17th on the team in the last survey) to the sixth-worst value on the club.

White Sox Added Value Over the past 10 games, here are the White Sox who have increased their value to the team (players who were not active with the team over the past 10 games are not included in this list).

1. Alejandro De Aza, of, 2,747,522 (1)
2. Brent Morel, 3b, 2,032,277 (-9)
3. Gordon Beckham, 2b, 1,733,013 (-10)
4. Juan Pierre, of, 1,425,709 (-6)
5. Phil Humber, sp, 967,684 (2)
6. Alexei Ramirez, ss, 583,242 (6)
7. Dylan Axelrod, p, 529,892 (-)
8. Addison Reed, rp, 504,065 (-12)
9. Gavin Floyd, sp, 453,512 (8)
10. Eduardo Escobar, if, 378,025 (-11)
11. Jason Frasor, rp, 320,631 (16)
12. Shane Lindsay, rp, 300,704 (-5)
13. Zach Stewart, p, 199,821 (4)
14. Sergio Santos, rp, 144,218 (-4)
15. Chris Sale, rp, 12,948 (11)
16. A.J. Pierzynski, c, 12,277 (-3)

De Aza has completed a near-unprecedented three straight weeks atop the increasing value list, continuing to provide profit for the Pale Hose and stake his claim on a starting outfielder job in 2012. He could be joined on the 2012 roster by Reed, whos been golden since a rough, nerve-wracked first outing earlier this month in Detroit.
White Sox Lost Value Over the past 10 games, here are the White Sox who have decreased their value to the team. (players who were not active with the team over the past 10 games are not included in this list).

1. Alex Rios, of, -2,929,765 (2)
2. Mark Buehrle, sp, -2,925,662 (7)
3. Paul Konerko, 1b, -1,881,386 (14)
4. Jake Peavy, sp, -1,734,886 (9)
5. John Danks, sp, -1,587,086 (7)
6. Adam Dunn, dh, -1,041,579 (1)
7. Carlos Quentin, of, -844,195 (-)
8. Matt Thornton, rp, -743,127 (3)
9. Tyler Flowers, c, -624,513 (14)
10. Omar Vizquel, if, -487,658 (8)
11. Will Ohman, rp, -310,018 (13)
12. Dayan Viciedo, of-if, -141,992 (10)
13. Josh Kinney, rp, -116,794 (13)
14. Jesse Crain, rp, -68,156 (12)
15. Donny Lucy, c, -27,769 (15)

Rios is making a late run at Dunn for the very worst value on the White Sox, a task made more difficult by him continuing to play (and falter) while Dunn is largely inactive. Peavy ended his season on a sour note, and will only continue to lose value while inactive, meaning hell drop another 1.5 million by seasons end.

Overall, players made a modest gain of 905,681 in value and stand at 9,438,514 in the hole for the entire season. At this point, there is no way for the Chicago offense to break even in 2011. Pitchers took a hit in this last survey, dropping 3,881,314 in value but retaining 23,341,631 in overall value on the season.

The White Sox remain in the black on the year, at 13,903,117, a drop of 3,881,313 from the 140-game mark.

Brett Ballantini is CSNChicago.com's White Sox Insider. Follow him @CSNChi_Beatnik on Twitter for up-to-the-minute Sox information.

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