What it will take to close the Epstein deal

What it will take to close the Epstein deal
October 17, 2011, 12:17 am
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Sometime within the next 48 hours, Theo Epstein is expected to smile for the cameras.

With flashbulbs popping all around the stadium club, Epstein will pose for the before picture at the news conference where the Cubs will introduce him as their next head of baseball operations.

The after picture whether Epsteins hair turns gray or the stress of the job starts to show on his youthful face could be telling. This city demands nothing less than another World Series title from the 37-year-old executive.

What it will take for the Cubs and Red Sox to close this deal is gradually coming into focus. High-ranking officials from both sides remained underground over the weekend. On both days there were SUVs parked in the reserved spots for employees near the entrance to Wrigley Fields administrative offices.

As much as Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts and team president Crane Kenney would no doubt like to take a victory lap, there remains the matter of compensation, what it will take to pry Epstein from the final year of his contract.

Its also unclear if Epstein will be able to bring any Red Sox staffers along with him to Chicago. Sources continue to insist that Brett Jackson is untouchable and not part of the discussions.

Jackson generated 20 homers, 58 RBI, 21 stolen bases and a .379 on-base percentage in 115 games split between Double-A Tennessee and Triple-A Iowa last season. The Cubs believe that their 2009 first-round pick out of Cal-Berkeley could make the big-league club out of spring training.

The Red Sox are believed to be focused on Trey McNutt, a 22-year-old right-hander who is arguably the organizations best pitching prospect. The 32nd-round pick seemingly came out of nowhere (Haleyville, Ala.) in 2010 and went 10-1 with a 2.48 ERA and 132 strikeouts in 116.1 innings.

McNutt dealt with injuries in 2011 and didnt really build off that breakout season, finishing at 5-6 with a 4.55 ERA at Tennessee. But theres still enough upside where the Cubs could think hed eventually be part of their 2012 staff and refuse to give in to Bostons demands.

Either way, it will likely take two prospects. The Marlins set that baseline when they lured Ozzie Guillen from the South Side to South Beach.

A source familiar with the negotiations said that the Cubs are reluctant to give up anyone wholl be on their 40-man roster this winter. In that sense, Josh Vitters and Matt Szczur are viewed as unlikely to be included in the deal.

Vitters, the third overall pick in the 2007 draft, has been slower to develop. But hes still only 22 and team officials believe hes maturing.

Vitters is currently playing in the Arizona Fall League after hitting .283 with 14 homers and 81 RBI at Tennessee. He could probably use a full season on the Triple-A level in 2012. The Cubs will risk losing him if they dont sign him to the 40-man roster.

Szczur, a two-sport star at Villanova, has a unique contract that requires him to be moved to the 40-man roster this offseason. That was part of the recruiting pitch to give up his NFL ambitions and focus only on baseball. The 22-year-old outfielder finished last season at Class-A Daytona.

While the Red Sox examine the system, they will find intriguing players from the 2011 draft. Ricketts told his scouting department to take chances last summer and find more impact players. The chairman authorized close to 12 million in bonuses.

Those players cannot be traded until a year after the day they signed their contracts. In theory, a player could be labeled to be announced in the final Epstein settlement. But the Red Sox wouldnt want to take on the injury risk or stash him at a Cubs affiliate for almost the entire 2012 season.

A source predicted that the Red Sox will play this exactly like the agents at the signing deadline, waiting until the last minute to get the best possible deal for their clients.

There was no rush to hold a press conference on Sunday, with the Bears playing in primetime and the New England Patriots and Dallas Cowboys featured in another marquee game. Why compete with the NFL for attention?

A harder deadline will come before Wednesday, when the World Series begins and Major League Baseball forbids teams from making formal announcements. There are no games scheduled for Tuesday, and then commissioner Bud Selig imposes his news blackout.

While the tone of these negotiations made headlines, the big picture is that the Cubs and Red Sox have already found so much common ground. There is a motivated buyer and a determined seller. Everyone agrees that Epstein now belongs in Chicago.