Cutler Unable to Hit Open Targets

Cutler Unable to Hit Open Targets

Monday, November 23rd

Bears Still In Hunt for Playoffs at 4-6, What, Am I Missing Something?

This is not a wide open lay up like Jay Cutler missed tonight. Technically, the Bears are still in the hunt for postseason play, but they would need some serious help like every NFC team contracting H1N1. At the very least, every team on the Bears remaining schedule to have an outside shot. When you look back on the season so far, realistically, the Bears should be 7-3 or 6-4 at worst. It is unfortunate because the Bears and Jay Cutler are much better than they have displayed on the field.

Make the Play

There are no do overs in the National Football League. It is a results oriented business where giving it the Old College Try does not cut it. Just ask former head coach of the Buffalo Bills, Dick Jauron. Jauron tried to win football games, just like Jay Cutler tried to complete passes to wide open receivers. When your opportunity is there to make a play, you have to come through. No one can blame Offensive Coordinator, Ron Turner, tonight for this outcome. He dialed up three sure TD calls that Jay has to complete.

Who knows, maybe Philly folds if Jay finds pay dirt along with boosting his confidence in the process. Think of how the game would have changed. The Bears would have been playing with a lead which dramatically changes play calling on both sidelines.

Footwork

I think I have harped on this enough, but Im sure you clearly witnessed what I have been talking about tonight. If Jay sets his feet and throws on balance, he is going to the podium with a 3 TD night. It would have restored faith, but more importantly, deflected criticism from a player who could use a breather. Tonights performance only raises the level of concern to defcon 4. Jays bad habits have to be corrected if he is to succeed in this town or any other NFL city. QB coach Pep Hamilton has to incorporate a series of drills to clean up Jays game from the waist down. His lively hood depends on it in relation to GM Jerry Angelos year end evaluations.

Decisions

Jay had a one on one meeting with Ron Turner early this week as predicted. It must have went over like a lead balloon because the decision making was lacking again tonight. Jay was forcing the football again and was lucky not to walk away with another 4 interception performance. The play that I find most unsettling was the first overthrow to Greg Olsen in the first half. The play is Zero Strong Slot, K-2 Y Bow. A play action pass where Greg runs a corner route and the FB eludes the end man on the line of scrimmage looking for the ball quick in the flat. The Eagles blitzed the TE side and technically the ball should have been thrown hot to FB Jason McKie. It is the easier throw and he might have turned up the sideline for a score. Jay decided to ignore the first read and although Greg was open, he has to hit it because he chose to go against the integrity of the play. Again, Jay must learn to weigh the risk and rewards of his decision making. He was fading away on the throw trying to negotiate the blitzer when he could have set up and delivered the ball on balance to the FB before the blitzer was ever an issue. If you make the riskier decision, you better make the play! They know the rules of the play as well and will now just see a replay repeatedly of a ball going incomplete over the outreached hands of Greg Olsen. Situational play and footwork cannot be emphasized enough with Jay.

CubsTalk Podcast: Reacting to Kyle Schwarber's demotion and Mike Montgomery on his evolution

CubsTalk Podcast: Reacting to Kyle Schwarber's demotion and Mike Montgomery on his evolution

Tony Andracki, Scott Changnon and Jeff Nelson react in real time to the breaking news that Kyle Schwarber was demoted to the minor leagues. Plus, the trio play around with expansion drafts and who the most indispensable players on the Cubs are.

[RELATED - Inside the numbers on Schwarber's season-long struggles]

Patrick Mooney also goes 1-on-1 with Cubs swingman southpaw Mike Montgomery about the lanky lefty’s role and how he got here.

Check out the entire Podcast here.

Inside the Numbers: Kyle Schwarber's season-long struggle

Inside the Numbers: Kyle Schwarber's season-long struggle

The struggle is real for Kyle Schwarber.

The Cubs demoted their slumping slugger Thursday morning, sending Schwarber to Triple-A Iowa at the same time they put Jason Heyward on the disabled list. 

Let's break down the numbers behind Schwarber's season-long struggles:

.171 

Schwarber's batting average, which was the lowest among qualified hitters in Major League Baseball by a whopping 17 points (Alex Gordon — .188).

In the new age of baseball, batting average has become almost completely useless in telling the story of a hitter's value, especially with home runs flying out of the ballpark.

But to put this average in perspective, Bill Bergen — widely considered the worst hitter in baseball history — hit .170 for his entire career, though he also posted a ridiculous .395 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) thanks to a .194 on-base percentage and .201 slugging.

38

In 2016, the lowest batting average for a qualified hitter was .209 by Danny Espinosa of the Washington Nationals.

That means Schwarber would've needed to raise his batting average 38 points just to meet Espinosa's mark from last season.

The last qualified player to hit below .200 in a season was Baltimore's Chris Davis in 2014 with a .196 average (but he also had a .704 OPS).

17

Like we said, baseball is a different game nowadays and batting average doesn't tell the whole story.

Despite his MLB-low average, Schwarber actually had only the 17th-lowest OPS in the game, ahead of guys like Albert Pujols, Tim Anderson, Carlos Gonzalez, Rougned Odor and Dansby Swanson. Fellow Cub Addison Russell is one point higher with a .674 OPS.

Schwarber helped his own case by posting a .295 on-base percentage (124 points above his batting average) and .378 slugging. 

13.8 

That's Schwarber's walk rate, drawing a free pass in 13.8 percent of his plate appearances. That's the exact same rate as Anthony Rizzo, who has a .393 on-base percentage. 

Only Kris Bryant is higher among Cubs regulars (15.7 percent) and Schwarber's walk percentage is tied for the 20th-best rate in the majors, ahead of Miguel Cabrera (13.2 percent) and Dexter Fowler (12.1 percent).

189

Schwarber was on pace to strike out 189 times over the course of a 162-game season. That would've come in as the fourth-highest whiff total of 2016, behind Davis (219), Chris Carter (206) and Mike Napoli (194).

But Schwarber has always been a big strikeout guy, whiffing 28.6 percent of the time in his career. That rate is at 28.7 percent in 2017. 

In 2015, Schwrber struck out 28.2 percent of the time and still posted an 842 OPS, so it's not like he can't be successful with this whiff rate.

-7/-7.7

The first number (-7 percent) is the increase in soft contact percentage from Schwarber's 2015 season (15.4 percent) to this year (22.4 percent). The second number (-7.7 percent) is the decrease in hard-hit contact from 39.7 percent in 2015 to 32 percent this year.

So Schwarber is simply not hitting the ball as hard overall this year, even though he's making contact at essentially the same rate.

.849

That's Schwarber's OPS in June, spanning 46 at-bats. He's only hitting .196 in the month, but he has a .327 OBP and .522 SLG thanks to four homers, three doubles and nine walks. 

The decent start to the month has helped raise Schwarber's season OPS from .627 to .673, but it was really the month of May that did America's Large Adult Son in: .120/.232/.337 in 83 May at-bats, good for a .569 OPS.

1.056 

In the first 12 games of June, Schwarber posted a 1.056 OPS thanks to a .250/.368/.688 slash line and four homers. It was that start that helped give Joe Maddon more confidence to move Schwarber around in the order, including hitting third Wednesday behind Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant.

But since that hot start to June, Schwarber is only 1-for-14 with a double in five games (four starts), sinking his season OPS 20 points from .693 to .673.

.104

Schwarber's batting average on balls in play (BABIP) for over a month, from May 10 to June 13. Schwarber racked up 98 plate appearances (84 at-bats) and had 30 strikeouts and six homers (which don't count toward BABIP), so he collected five hits in 48 balls put in play. 

Put another way: Schwarber had three singles in roughly five weeks of play (27 games). That's insanely bad luck, even factoring in the shift teams pull against the left-handed slugger, putting three defenders on the right side of the field.

During that stretch, Schwarber was an extreme three true outcome guy, with half his plate appearances (49) resulting in either a home run, a walk or a strikeout.

Schwarber's season BABIP is .193, a far cry from his .242 career mark. No other Cubs position player has a BABIP under .235 (Zobrist) on the year.

.221/.336/.456

Ending on a positive: This is Schwarber's batting line over the course of his career, including playoffs. That's a .792 OPS, even when factoring in this year's struggles. It also includes 33 HR and 81 RBI.

It also comes over 502 at-bats (590 plate appearances), essentially a full season's worth of action.