How did 2016 get so bad for Notre Dame?

How did 2016 get so bad for Notre Dame?

LOS ANGELES — Notre Dame wrapped up the fifth-worst season since 1899 on Saturday with a 45-27 loss to No. 12 USC at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. 

After the game, Brian Kelly said he “absolutely” wants to be back, then doubled down with a statement pushing back on reports he was exploring coaching options outside Notre Dame. 

A year ago, Notre Dame was five hours north in the Bay Area and was a Conrad Ukropina field goal away from finishing 11-1 and being considered for a spot in the College Football Playoff. How did things get so bad so quickly at Notre Dame?

With the 2016 season in the books, there are three key points as to why Notre Dame went from 10-3 to 4-8:

1. Retaining defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder. Yes, Notre Dame fired its seven-figure defensive coordinator after four ineffective games in September, but Kelly said he never considered firing VanGorder after the 2015 season. If 2016 indeed is the end or beginning of the end of the Kelly era, not making a coordinator switch after the Fiesta Bowl can be pointed to as the first crack in the foundation in South Bend. 

Notre Dame’s defense was inconsistent and wholly mediocre in 2015, even with future NFL players on every unit (Romeo Okwara, Sheldon Day, Jaylon Smith, KeiVarae Russell, Matthias Farley). If those guys couldn’t effectively run VanGorder’s complex, pro-style defense, why would 2016’s inexperienced group be able to handle it?

That’s, of course, a rhetorical question, because Notre Dame’s defense experienced massive breakdowns in the first four weeks of the season. It’s not a coincidence that Notre Dame’s three worst losses of the season — to Texas, Michigan State and Duke, all of which will not make a bowl game this year — came under VanGorder’s watch. Notre Dame allowed 6.2 yards per play (103rd) and 33.5 points per game (100th) in September. 

If Notre Dame wins those games, 2016 is a seven-win disappointment, not an eight-loss disaster. This was never going to be a championship-caliber defense, but a better scheme could’ve at least allowed Notre Dame to go to a bowl game, which would give them a better chance of turning things around in 2017 based on recent history. 

2. Lack of a running game. Notre Dame finished the 2016 season in the middle of the pack in terms of yards per rush (4.47, 66th) and in the bottom third in rushing attempts per game (36.5, 96th) among FBS teams. For whatever reason — ineffective/banged-up running backs, an offensive line that didn’t meet high expectations or a lack of coaching commitment to the run — Notre Dame didn't succeed on the ground, which put far too much strain on quarterback DeShone Kizer.

Kizer handled that pressure well early in the season, though an offensive lull against Michigan State helped the Spartans rip off 36 unanswered points. He was benched after failing to do much against Stanford and wasn’t effective in the second half against Virginia Tech, two games in which Notre Dame led by double digits early and ultimately lost. 

In 2015, Kizer was effective when he wasn’t the sole star in the offense. And while having a get-out-of-jail-free card in Will Fuller to play was certainly beneficial, having a 1,000-yard rusher in C.J. Prosise and a record-setting freshman in Josh Adams helped Kizer quickly adapt to his newfound starting role.

So even in a year in which he roundly impressed NFL scouts, Kizer had a lower completion percentage (58.7 percent) than he did in 2015 (62.9 percent). Yes, he missed some throws, but a significant part of his off-and-on struggles this year was because he didn’t have a consistent running game on which to lean. 

3. Far too many mistakes outside offense and defense. Notre Dame probably could’ve overcame some of the VanGorder/running game deficiencies had it not 1) committed so many special teams mistakes and 2) not seen Kelly & Co. make a number of curious coaching decisions. 

Special teams turnovers against Michigan State and Miami were costly, as was allowing Duke to return a kickoff for a touchdown that sparked the Blue Devils’ comeback from an early 14-0 deficit. A wrongly-enforced too-many-men-on-the-field penalty against Navy halted any momentum Notre Dame had in that game. And N.C. State’s blocked punt in Hurricane Matthew resulted in the game-deciding touchdown in Raleigh. Only against Miami did Notre Dame overcome a catastrophic special teams mistake. 

Kelly’s decision to play both Kizer and Zaire against Texas backfired; had Kizer simply been named the starting quarterback, perhaps Notre Dame’s offense scores enough points against a bad Texas defense to overcome its own defensive deficiencies. Notre Dame called for far too many passing plays in the windy, rainy quagmire at N.C. State. Benching Kizer for Zaire against Stanford was an ineffective move, too. And kicking a field goal on fourth down instead of going for it in the fourth quarter against Navy resulted in Notre Dame not getting the ball back in that 28-27 loss. 

Those were the obvious ones. Similarly concerning, though, was how Notre Dame consistently started strong but methodically blew double-digit leads against Duke, Stanford, Miami and Virginia Tech, and scored the first touchdown in every game but N.C. State. When things began to turn, neither the players nor the coaching staff were able to stop their opponents’ surge, except for that outlier win over Miami. 

Kelly said Saturday he’ll begin evaluating his coaching staff on Monday, and if he does stay with the program, a few changes are in order (hiring a permanent defensive coordinator is priority No. 1, and tight ends coach/special teams coordinator Scott Booker’s job likely is in jeopardy). Kelly will have to take a hard look at his coaching staff and offensive structure going forward, since if he is back for 2017, he’ll likely be coaching for his job. 

“I thought we could play with anybody this year,” Kelly said. “We just had not been able to sustain consists performance for four quarters. We had shown a propensity for some self-inflicted wounds, whether they be in special teams or offense or defense. I think we eliminated a lot of those from earlier in the year on offense or defense. And they’re all correctable through experience, through our offseason program.” 

For the sake of everyone in South Bend, they’ll have to hope Kelly is right about the issues that manifested themselves in 2016 are correctable. Because if not, it’ll be a long road back to prominence for this program, no matter who’s coaching it. 

Is Brian Kelly out at Notre Dame if new QB Brandon Wimbush’s rocket arm doesn’t deliver for Irish in 2017?

Is Brian Kelly out at Notre Dame if new QB Brandon Wimbush’s rocket arm doesn’t deliver for Irish in 2017?

A 4-8 season in 2016 has put Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly firmly on the hot seat as he heads into his eighth season with the Fighting Irish.

In response to a tumultuous season, Kelly made major changes to his staff this past offseason by hiring new coordinators on both sides of the ball.

Mike Elko, who previously led Wake Forest to an FBS Top-40 total defense ranking, was hired by Kelly to be Notre Dame's defensive coordinator, and Chip Long — former offensive coordinator at Memphis — will now be in charge of the Fighting Irish offense.

However, the biggest change and arguably the No. 1 factor in Kelly's long-term future in South Bend, will be the person under center in 2017.

Barring an unforeseen circumstance, junior quarterback Brandon Wimbush — a former Rivals four-star recruit — will lead Notre Dame out of the tunnel in Week 1 vs. Temple.

Wimbush has only thrown five passes during his time at Notre Dame, but showed what kind of talent he has with a 58-yard rushing touchdown as a freshman in 2015.

Wimbush was one of the focal points of a recent Rivals story regarding quarterbacks who will be facing pressure in 2017

Earlier this week, Rivals Recruiting Director Mike Farrell gave his scouting report on the Notre Dame quarterback.


I’m a big fan of Wimbush but that hasn’t always been the case. It’s not that I didn’t like him when I first scouted him before his high school career took off, but what I saw way back when was a kid who had a rocket arm and zero touch. But throughout his high school career he improved every time I saw him, showed much more than just a strong arm and flashed impressive poise for his age.

I’ve seen very limited action when it comes to Wimbush in college as he hasn’t played often and his spring game performance had ups and downs, but I believe in this kid’s ability. He can extend the play, has that great arm and just needs to get comfortable in the Notre Dame offense and make sure he doesn’t try to use that cannon to fit the ball into tight spots. I can see him having some growing pains this season, but as he gets more comfortable and learns to take what the defense gives him while keeping defenses off balance with his athletic ability, I think he’ll finish strong.

Will Wimbush's rocket arm be enough to save Kelly from the hot seat?

That's still to be determined.

Two views of Notre Dame's 2017 signing day class

Two views of Notre Dame's 2017 signing day class

After a handful of late additions sent in their national letters of intent to the Guglielmino Athletics Complex, Notre Dame on Wednesday announced its 21-player recruiting class of 2017. There are a couple of ways to view the end of what was a volatile recruiting period for the Irish:

The glass-half-full take:

Two and a half months after wrapping up an embarrassing 4-8 season, Notre Dame's 2017 recruiting class ranks 11th by 247 Sports, 13th by Rivals, 13th by Scout and 16th by ESPN. In fact, Notre Dame actually ranks higher this year in 247 Sports' composite rankings (11th) than it did in 2016 (15th), when the Irish were coming off a 10-win season and a Fiesta Bowl berth. 

Nearly scraping together a top-10 class after going 4-8 and losing four assistant coaches in Mike Sanford, Mike Denbrock, Scott Booker and Keith Gilmore is an impressive feat (Greg Hudson was only an interim defensive coordinator, and Brian VanGorder was far from a reliable recruiter). Plenty of kudos should be extended the way of recruiting coordinator/defensive line coach Mike Elston for heading up the program's efforts to keep what began as a pretty strong class from disintegrating. 

Additionally, coach Brian Kelly pointed to the work of the 15 verbally-committed players who stuck with their pledges even as Notre Dame sustained a string of confounding losses and significant coaching turnover. 

"We couldn't be where we are today unless we had 15 student-athletes that were committed to Notre Dame from the start to the finish," Kelly said. "Really during a very difficult season, this group of 15 really had to endure the things that would occur out there in recruiting during a very difficult season. Other schools reminding them about a very difficult season that we had. Then there was them sticking together because of why they wanted to come to Notre Dame."

Five of those players enrolled early — tight end Brock Wright, offensive linemen Robert Gainsay and Aaron Banks, running back C.J. Holmes and safety Isaiah Robertson, all of whom 247 sports rated as four-star recruits — and guys like tight end Cole Kmet, quarterback Avery Davis and offensive linemen Joshua Lugg never wavered, too. 

That those players stuck together helped Notre Dame maintain a good base after the NCAA-mandated dead period lifted after the College Football Playoff title game last month, and new coaches Brian Polian, Mike Elko, Clark Lea, Chip Long and DelVaughn Alexander were able to bring in six late additions to the class: safety Jordan Genmark Heath, wide receiver Jafar Armstrong, kicker Jonathan Doerer, defensive lineman Myron Tagovailoa, linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and defensive lineman Kofi Wardlow. 

Armstrong, Tagovailoa and Wardlow all filled red-line positions of need, while adding more players to increase the pool of talent available to Elko is hardly a bad thing. 

But the optimistic viewpoint here is the deck was stacked against Notre Dame in recruiting, and they actually turned out a pretty good hand thanks to a complete effort from everyone in the athletic department. 

"Every weekend, Jack Swarbrick, our athletic director, met with our recruits," Kelly said. "That's unusual. I don't think that happens everywhere that your athletic director makes himself able to meet with recruits.

"In a lot of instances he had to be there to support our football program and talk to recruits about where this program is and where it's going. There are questions when a family comes on campus. He reminded them about the investment we were making in staff and what we were doing for the present and for the future. So having Jack's involvement in this was absolutely crucial to get to where we are."

Now, for the glass-half-empty take:

Notre Dame had six players decommit, five of whom were at positions of need (defensive line, cornerback, wide receiver). Only four-star defensive end Robert Beal jumped ship before Notre Dame's fall tailspin was underway, and four of those six decommitting players were four-star recruits. 

Notre Dame wound up replacing them with six late commitments, but five of those late-deciding players were three-star recruits and one (Doerner) was a two-star player. That's a good recipe for slipping from having a top-10 class to one on the outside looking in. 

A common lament among fans is that Notre Dame has struggled to sign five-star recruits lately, and while it's true the Irish haven't done that since 2013 — Jaylon Smith and Max Redfield, as rated by 247 Sports — that's not as big an issue as it may seem. Just look at the disparity in college success between Smith and Redfield as a front-and-center example of how a five-star rating doesn't guarantee success in college. Signing more four/five-star recruits than two/three-star ones is far more important (more on that in a bit). 

But the bigger issue with Notre Dame's 2017 class perhaps has more to do with its 2016 class. Notre Dame lost ace recruiters Tony Alford and Kerry Cooks after the 2014 season and re-worked its entire recruiting operation in response, which led to little oomph in a 2016 class that, based on the prior season, should've been much better than it was. 

Last year's group could ultimately build a legacy as a less-heralded crop of recruits that went on to success — the strong debuts of 247 Sports three-stars in cornerback Julian Love and wide receiver Kevin Stepherson were good starts — but there's a long way to go there. 

If 2016 was supposed to be a more transitional recruiting class, though, then 2017 represents a massive missed opportunity. Going 4-8 with all the right recruiting machinations in place is a glaring shortcoming for the future of the program — even a nine-win season could've allowed Notre Dame to hang on to some of those four-star players it lost and earn a top-10 class ranking. 

More importantly than a top-10 class, though, is pulling in more four- and five-star recruits than two and-three star ones. Notre Dame didn't do that in 2017 (10 four-star recruits out of 21) or 2016 (10 four-star recruits out of 23) after hitting that benchmark each of the last three recruiting cycles. That's a worrying trend given the correlation between signing a majority of four- and five-star recruits and winning a championship

The last two recruiting cycles have been, in that context, significant disappointment. While strong classes in 2014 and 2015 could prop up a playoff run as soon as this fall, the future of the program may not be on solid footing even if the Irish engineer a major turnaround in 2017. Next year's class likely will be critical to the long-term success of the program under Kelly, presuming he's still around to usher in the next group of recruits in February of 2018.