Three keys and prediction: Notre Dame – Navy

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1. No special teams mistakes. This is a thing now, after Notre Dame made two catastrophic gaffes on special teams against Miami that allowed the Hurricanes to get back into that game and, temporarily, take the lead. Against Navy, the effects of a turnover on a punt return would be catastrophic. Navy’s grind-it-out triple option offense will run plenty of plays and deliver a steady stream of grueling cut blocks to the Irish defensive line, and getting off the field against the Mids is a difficult task. Having to go back on the field immediately if there’s a turnover on a punt probably means an eventual Navy touchdown and plenty more clock being eaten up by Ken Niumatalolo’s offense. 

2. Don’t dip offensively. Notre Dame’s offense ranks 8th in first quarter S&P+, but slips to 93rd in the second quarter, 53rd in the third quarter and 79th in the fourth quarter. Navy’s defense should provide a good opportunity for a fast start and a strong finish: The Mids rank 127th in first quarter defensive S&P+, 66th in the second quarter, 116th in the third quarter and 107th in the fourth quarter. This is an eminently beatable defense that only has totaled three interceptions, so as long as DeShone Kizer doesn’t force anything, he should have no problem carving up Navy’s defense on Saturday. 

3. Get the lead and hold it. While quarterback Will Worth has thrown the ball more frequently (12.4 passing attempts per game) than any Navy quarterback since Ricky Dobbs in 2010, Navy’s offense best operates when it can use its passing game as a change-of-pace curveball to throw at opposing secondaries. For an Irish secondary full of freshmen, this will be a challenge regardless — but if Kizer and the offensive hold up their end of the bargain, it’ll allow Notre Dame’s defensive backs to have a much better idea of when those passes will be coming if Navy needs to quickly make up a significant deficit. As always with a triple option offense, it’s not built for late-game comebacks, so Notre Dame’s trajectory needs to look more like it did against Syracuse than it did against Miami. 

Prediction: Notre Dame 45, Navy 42. Josh Adams has a big game on the ground to set up an efficient game from Kizer, while the Irish defense does just enough to keep Navy at bay in another narrow win. 

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