1. Win on third and long. Virginia Tech’s offense isn’t particularly explosive and struggles to run the ball, but Jerod Evans has had plenty of success gaining necessary yardage in obvious passing situations by slinging the ball to tight end Bucky Hodges and receivers Isaiah Ford and Cam Phillips. Merely forcing third and long won’t be enough for the Irish defense — it’ll need its secondary to make plays to get off the field in those situations. If Julian Love, Devin Studstill & Co. aren’t up to the task, it could be a long afternoon for the Irish defense.
2. No special teams mistakes. Alright, so Notre Dame made it through last week’s blowout win over Army without committing a mind-numbing special teams error (in fact, the opposite was true, given C.J. Sanders’ opening kick return for a TD). But expect Saturday’s game to be decided by no more than one score, and that’s the kind of game that can be swung by muffing a punt or allowing a big kickoff return.
3. Generate big passing plays. Virginia Tech’s defense is good against the run (38th in S&P+) and great against the pass (6th in S&P+), but is susceptible to allowing explosive plays, especially through the air. This means Notre Dame will 1) have to establish some semblance of a running game, 2) pick up Bud Foster’s blitzes when they come and 3) have DeShone Kizer connect with his receivers downfield when the opportunity presents itself. Virginia Tech probably has the best defense Notre Dame will face in 2016, but if Kizer & Co. can take advantage of the limited opportunities the Hokies afford them, they’ll have a shot at a successful Saturday.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 26, Notre Dame 24. For the seventh time in 2016, Notre Dame comes close but can’t overcome a critical offensive/defensive/special teams/coaching mistake, sending its seniors out with a loss for only the second time in Brian Kelly’s tenure in South Bend.