First and Final Thoughts: Talking ourselves into Chase Daniel again

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Welcome into First and Final Thoughts, one of our weekly columns with a title that's a little too on the nose. Here we'll have Insider J.J Stankevitz and Producers Cam Ellis and Paul Aspan give some insight into what's on their minds between games.

Final Thought on Week 12

J.J. Stankevitz: I asked slot cornerback Bryce Callahan what the mood on the plane was coming back from Detroit in Thanksgiving, and his answer was illuminating: “It was more a sense of relief,” Callahan said, “like we got that through and now we can move on and go toward the final push." The Bears set a goal to go 3-0 in their grueling stretch against the Lions, Vikings and Lions, and proved a lot to themselves in accomplishing just that. This team now knows not only how good it is, but how well it can handle anything that comes its way. Win a game on the least amount of rest in NFL history? Check. Do it with your backup quarterback? Check. Do it with two huge defensive plays at the end of the game? Check. Players feel like they have something special building here, and it’s hard to argue otherwise. 

Paul Aspan: This is how defenses have to win games now – scoring points and game-changing turnovers. That’s not exactly a brand new formula, but the days of just flat out stopping the elite offenses in the league are over. We even saw it on Thanksgiving with LeGarrette Blount running over the Bears defense a little bit. But, if we’re gonna get way ahead of ourselves – it’s more fun that way – the Bears defense may just have enough playmakers to hang with the Rams, Chiefs and Saints of the world. In that 105 point Monday Night spectacle between the Chiefs and Rams, the two defenses scored 3 defensive touchdowns, and the Rams scored 21 of their 54 points off turnovers. So there was defense. The same type of defense the Bears have been playing. With 3 TD this month, someone just tell Eddie Jackson that this weekend’s game is on November 32nd.

Cam Ellis: The only thing I'll take away from Thanksgiving is that the Bears somehow won on 88 hours rest with their backup QB in a divisional road game. Any one of those reasons would have been more than enough to excuse a loss, but the Bears pulled it out. It's not a fluke that they're fighting for the 2nd seed. 

First Thought on Week 13

Stankevitz: Credit Pat Shurmur for finding some sort of offensive spark with an aging Eli Manning, who’s completed 78 percent of his passes with six touchdowns, one interception and a 117.3 passer rating over his last three games. Granted: Those came against the San Francisco 49ers (23st in defensive DVOA), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (31)and Philadelphia Eagles (24). The Bears rank 1st in defensive DVOA, and it’s not particularly close. So while the Giants have standout weapons in Odell Beckham Jr. and Saquon Barkley, this is a 3-8 team that lost whatever sliver of hope it had in 2018 with Sunday’s loss to the Eagles. The Bears proved they can beat an inferior opponent with Chase Daniel on the road last week, the same opportunity will present itself this week in New Jersey. 

Aspan: If I’m Matt Nagy, I’ve had Mitchell Trubisky locked in on Rams game tape since coming back after Thanksgiving. So yea, that means Chase Daniel gets another start on Sunday in New York. Considering all the factors at play – team record, state of the NFC North, health, road game against a bad team, I feel like the risk/reward ratio leans strongly to giving Trubisky another week off. If a less than 100% Trubisky goes on the road and plays a meh game – and worst case scenario plays an awful game and loses – the last thing you want is him searching for his confidence heading into the Rams game and even more importantly the final month of the season and into the playoffs.  Also, I’ve been posing this question around the office this week: Without guaranteeing the two Super Bowl wins (because you can’t), if I told you that Mitchell Trubisky would have a similar career to Eli Manning, would you be happy with that? Yea, didn’t think so.

Ellis: This feels nitpicky, since the Bears' defense has nothing to prove to anyone anymore, but I'm fascinated to watch the front seven go up against Saquon Barkley, Todd Gurley, and Aaron Jones in three straight weeks. Jones and Gurley are Football Outsiders' 1st and 2nd ranked running backs, and while FO isn't as high on Barkley as others are, he's unquestionably in the league's top tier of backs. Even with the Bears having the best run defense in football, you're always a little concerned when lining up against the best at any position. For what it's worth, the Bears have only gone up against one running back that ranks 10th or better in DYAR - Detroit's Kerryon Johnson (Aaron Jones was suspended for the first two weeks of the season). It's not necessairly as much of a concern as it's just a general intrigue, but there's no question this is going to be the toughest stretch their run defense will have all season. 

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