Michigan State out of the NCAA tournament? Is it really possible?
You better believe it.
It was common knowledge this season would be different for Tom Izzo & Co. A program often defined by its veteran leaders was going to rely on Izzo's best recruiting class ever, a foursome of fearsome freshmen that could wreak havoc on the Big Ten.
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That hasn't happened. The non-conference struggles were well chronicled, though the impossibly tough schedule seemed to play a large role in five non-conference losses. Conference play started with three wins, and things were looking a little more ordinary for a program that has dominated the competition for decades. But the Spartans have dropped five of their last eight games, with losses to teams that are in no way challenging for the league championship: Penn State, Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan.
Tuesday night's loss to Michigan was a 29-point shellacking. Michigan State, meet rock bottom.
The Wolverines shot better than 60 percent in their runaway win, and Sparty turned the ball over a jaw-dropping 21 times.
Of course, the poor play took a backseat to Michigan State losing its cool. Big man Nick Ward tripped Michigan's Mo Wagner, earning a technical foul and immediate comparisons to the current Public Enemy No. 1 of college hoops fans: Duke's Grayson Allen.
Take a look.
And so we come to Michigan State's spot on the NCAA tournament bubble. The Big Ten claims a lot of residents of that space, and while bracketologists seem intent on including seven or eight teams from the conference in their projections, one wonders why.
Specifically talking about the Spartans, let's look at the remaining schedule. Let's say they win remaining games against Iowa, Ohio State, Nebraska and Illinois and lose remaining games against Wisconsin, Purdue and Maryland. That's a 4-3 finish that gives them an 18-13 overall record and a 10-8 record in conference play. Does that really make Izzo's group one of the 68 best in college basketball?
Big Ten
And while that above projection is generous given losses to teams the caliber of the Iowas, Ohio States and Nebraskas, it seems Michigan State might sneak into the 68-team field for the sole reason that the Big Ten won't have too many better options from which to choose.
Whether the Spartans hear their name on Selection Sunday or not, this has been anything but a normal season for Izzo's team. Tuesday night sure looked like the worst things could possibly get, but missing the Big Dance for the first time in 20 years? Well, maybe that would be worse.