Opening Day: Cubs roster projection with one week left

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When the Cubs learned this week that promising young pitcher Adbert Alzolay has been granted a fourth minor-league option, it changed the Opening Day roster calculus on everything from how many pitchers they might keep to infielder Nico Hoerner’s status.The primary impact of the arbitrator’s decision on Alzolay’s status is that it allows the kid with the shaky spring and least experience of anyone else in the pitching mix to get more work at the alternate site in April and possible Triple-A in May before joining a team that figures to need him at some point.“He hasn’t had a lot of innings. That’s the main thing for us, to continue to monitor his innings and keep him healthy and on the development path,” manager David Ross said. “And, yeah, he is a guy that is really going to help us out.“So balancing that with his development process, with how the roster shakes out, all that stuff comes into play.”And the ripple effect will be felt all the way to the infield — and possibly the outfield — as those decisions for a 26-man roster shake out in the final seven days before the season opens at Wrigley Field against the Pirates on Thursday.“Our roster decisions haven’t been made yet,” Ross said.Cool.We’ll make them for him and team president Jed Hoyer with one week to go before they open the season:

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1/5

Say hello to the big leagues, P.J. Higgins.

The former 12th-round draft pick out of Old Dominion is all but assured the backup job to Willson Contreras as veteran Austin Romine continues to be bothered by knee soreness as he slowly works his way back into playing shape — with little chance of having enough time to make it back by Thursday.

Higgins has earned praise from his manager all spring, and José Lobatón’s demotion in a recent round of cuts has paved the way for Higgins to make his big-league debut a year after spending the non-minor-league season at the club’s alternate site.

Look for Romine to open the season with a back-dated injured-list move, barring a sudden turnaround and shocking comeback.

Starter — Contreras (R)

Backup — Higgins (R)

2/5

Three starting jobs have been locked in from the start, barring trades:

First base — Anthony Rizzo (L)

Third base — Kris Bryant (R)

Shortstop — Javy Báez (R)

Alzolay’s newly discovered fourth option and Nico Hoerner’s reheating bat late in camp make it likelier the Gold Glove finalist at second base last year could open the season there. Either way, his chances of making the club as at least a substantial part of a rotation at the position (and a backup SS) took a big jump when the Alzolay news.

So fill those three other infield spots like this (with switch-hitting Ildemaro Vargas a tough roster out):

2B/backup SS — Hoerner (R)

2B/3B — David Bote (R)

2B/3B/SS — Eric Sogard (L)

3/5

Nothing’s changed here in recent weeks except the surge by fourth outfielder Jake Marisnick in the field and at the plate since he started spring slow with a calf issue. That included a fourth home run in barely a week on Wednesday.

Also keep an eye on Cam Maybin’s status in the final days. The veteran hasn’t lit the world on fire this spring, and a tough squeeze with the final roster numbers could mean choosing between the appealing veteran/clubhouse presence/versatile outfielder and another pitcher or infielder.

Left field — Joc Pederson (L)

Center field — Ian Happ (S)

Right field — Jason Heyward (L)

Outfield — Jake Marisnick (R)

Outfield — Cam Maybin (R)

4/5

Ross only this week declared Kyle Hendricks his opening day starter, finally making official the worst-kept secret in baseball this spring. The rest of the rotation already has looked set all month as the starters have stayed healthy and performed well overall.

The bigger question involves how they’ll adjust once the season starts with innings limits, piggyback starts, sixth starters for short stretches, etc.

This group figures to be under greater scrutiny than any other position group on the team, a weak link of the team on paper that could undergo tweaks and fixes all year.

For now, the five:

RHP Hendricks

RHP Jake Arrieta

RHP Zach Davies

RHP Trevor Williams

RHP Alec Mills

5/5

The Alzolay news increased the likelihood the Cubs will open with 13 pitchers instead of 14, but there’s still a scenario that could play out with the extra pitcher on the opening roster.

For now at least six pitchers appear locked in because of status entering camp, their style/stuff, and/or good springs:

RHP Craig Kimbrel (closer)

RHP Brandon Workman

RHP Jason Adam

LHP Andrew Chafin

RHP Dan Winkler

RHP Ryan Tepera

Right-hander Shelby Miller, a former All-Star starter with a more recent track record of injury rehab has looked great in camp, would make a good-looking addition to a rotation that has nobody pitching with his mid-90s power and also has been discussed as a long-relief, short-relief and spot-start option.

Then there’s the lefty issue, with only Chafin and a reverse-splits righty or two as your gotta-get-Yelich-out guys in the later innings.

That puts the historically inconsistent lefty Rex Brothers in play for a spot after an excellent spring so far and possibly left-hander Brad Wieck if he finishes strong enough after a slow start to his spring.

Dillon Maples, with his slider from hell and the bedeviled command, is out of options and likely is lost to the organization via waivers if cut, but that might be a tough choice that finally gets made. And while Alzolay is likely to get optioned, his stuff also is tantalizing enough that a good finish (and perhaps a setback with somebody else) could put him in play in the final days.

The way we’re calling it now, the last two spots:

RHP Shelby Miller

RHP Pedro Strop

That’s right, we said Strop. Which probably means it’ll be Brothers. Or Maples.

Stay tuned.

MORE: How Cubs' Opening Day bullpen could stack up 

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