Playoffs?! Bears' first five games critical to postseason dreams

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Two things can be true about the 2023 Bears: They should be a much better team than the Year 0 unit that went 3-14 last season, and a playoff berth still feels unlikely.

But it is the NFL, and a few teams always unexpectedly crash the postseason party.

Most of those teams figure to be in the loaded AFC this season. But given the NFC's mediocre nature and the NFC North's uncertain landscape, there could be a window for the Bears to be in the hunt come late November and perhaps make a surprise playoff push.

It's unlikely but never say never. Or, at least don't say never on May 12.

Of the seven NFC teams that made the playoffs last season -- Eagles, 49ers, Buccaneers, Vikings, Seahawks, Cowboys, Giants -- at least two should fall out of the picture. The Buccaneers no longer have Tom Brady and the Giants face a grueling schedule in Year 2 of the Brian Daboll era. It's also unclear what to expect of the Vikings as they try to compete and rebuild simultaneously. I'm going to lock in the Eagles, 49ers, Cowboys, and Seahawks assuming they are all healthy.

That leaves at least one wild-card spot and the NFC North champion slot up for grabs, with the Detroit Lions entering the season as the division front-runner.

Getting to the playoffs will be an incredibly tough road to hoe for the rebuilding Bears. A successful season should consist of quarterback Justin Fields making the needed leap as a passer and the Bears being part of the "in the hunt" graphic when the calendar flips to December.

That's doable.

But if the Bears have any hopes of engineering a surprise playoff berth, the NFL schedule makers gave them a nice launching pad when the league released the slate Thursday.

One the Bears must take advantage of to have any hope of playing football in mid-to-late January.

The Bears' first five games include dates with two first-time starting quarterbacks, a signal-caller looking to resurrect his career in a new city, and an NFL reclamation project that will still be early in its redemption arc. It also includes a visit to Kansas City to play the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs, which I will go ahead and Sharpie as a loss right now.

Aside from the Week 3 trip to K.C., the Bears will open the season with winnable games against Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers at home, Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay, Russell Wilson and Sean Payton at Soldier Field, and the Caleb Williams lottery-bound Commanders in D.C.

It couldn't set up better for a fast start.

Getting Love right out of the chute will give the Bears an opportunity to set the tone for the season and the rivalry post-Aaron Rodgers. The Packers will look to pound the rock with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. Matt Eberflus' revamped defense has to bottle up the Packers' ground game and force Love and an underwhelming group of receivers to beat the Bears.

Week 1 is too early for a must-win, but it will be a gut punch if the Bears lose.

Just as the Bears get the Packers at a good time, they also face Mayfield and the Bucs at the opportune moment.

Even without Tom Brady, the Bucs are still a talented team with top-tier wide receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. But it's a team probably destined for a seven- or eight-win season with Mayfield at the helm.

There's a chance the former No. 1 overall pick has a resurgence in Tampa, but it will take him time to build that chemistry with his new weapons. So Week 2 is an excellent time for the Bears to face the new-look, retooling Bucs.

After that Week 3 trip to Kansas City, the Bears host the Broncos.

Replacing Nathaniel Hackett with Payton should be good for at least four more wins in Denver this season. The 2023 Broncos will look much different than the 2022 debacle. They can't look worse.

Payton's teams are tough, physical maulers. The additions of Mike McGlinchey and Ben Powers to the offensive line tell me the Broncos plan to run, run, and run some more.

Payton has the cache to tell Wilson that a Seahawks-style offense is best for him and the Broncos. Hackett had zero juice, and Wilson steamrolled him. The results were disastrous.

I expect the Broncos to be in the playoff hunt this season, but the Bears once again get a team undergoing big changes early in the campaign. The Broncos are a better team, but the spot sets up nicely for the Bears.

RELATED: Game-by-game predictions, analysis for Bears' 2023 schedule

As for the final game in this launching pad, the Bears must roll into FedEx Field in Week 5 and beat Sam Howell and the Commanders on a Thursday night. Last season, the Bears lost a 12-7 puke fest to the Commanders at Soldier Field in a game that Carson Wentz threw for 99 (!) yards.

Another loss to the Commanders would be borderline catastrophic. Yes, Washington's defensive line is excellent. It dominated the Bears' patchwork offensive line last season. But Darnell Wright and Nate Davis, along with an improved Braxton Jones at left tackle, should ensure Fields spends more time dropping dimes than picking himself off the turf.

Ron Rivera is a good coach, but the Commanders seem like a lock for the Caleb Williams-Drake Maye derby at the bottom of the league.

After Week 5, the Bears enter a brutal seven-game stretch that will define their season. That section is bound to have losses and learning moments.

But if the Bears can take care of business in the first five weeks -- say 3-2 -- they should be able to weather that midseason storm and have a playoff pulse (might be faint) come December.

However, if the Bears throw away their opportunity for a fast start, with stumbles against Love, Howell, the Bucs, or Broncos, their already unlikely playoff hopes will likely evaporate by early November.

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