Scouting report: Breaking down where it should go right for Cubs and how it could all go wrong in the playoffs

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One Cubs official perfectly described the mood around this team: The Cubs are World Series favorites, because they have the best record and the most talent. At the same time, people automatically expect something to go wrong because, well, they’re the Cubs.    

Cubs fans will experience that mixture of anticipation and dread on Friday night – a strange feeling heightened by hours of pregaming in Wrigleyville – when they see the San Francisco Giants in their black-and-orange uniforms and think of their even-year championship pedigree from 2010, 2012 and 2014.

Somewhere between the dream of winning the franchise’s first World Series since 1908 and the randomness of playoff baseball is this thought: The Cubs are head and shoulders above the rest of the National League field, an American League scout said, quickly adding that anything can happen in a best-of-five series, especially when you’re facing Johnny Cueto and Madison Bumgarner three times.

“I don’t think anybody on paper can match up with the Cubs,” an NL West scout said. “At full strength, they’re going to be really tough. If you try to poke holes in this team, it’s hard to find.”

Whether you’re optimistic or fatalistic, here’s a clear-eyed view of where it should go right – and how it could go wrong – for your 2016 Cubs:

• To quote Jon Lester himself: “Don’t want to sound like an a--hole, but…” the entire industry saw how the Kansas City Royals attacked him during the 2014 AL wild-card game, stealing three bases off the lefty and seven overall against the Oakland A’s. The New York Mets exploited that team weakness during last year’s NL Championship Series sweep, and the Cubs will have to deal with a San Francisco offense that knows how to manufacture runs in October.

“Lester has got to be flawless,” an NL East scout said. “When you get into his head, you got him.”

Lester absolutely delivered in Year 2 of that $155 million megadeal, putting together a Cy Young Award-caliber season (19-5, 2.44 ERA). Those throwing issues can be minimized with a career-low WHIP (1.016), swing-and-miss stuff (197 strikeouts in 202-plus innings) and personal catcher David Ross. Lester already has two World Series rings from his time with the Boston Red Sox, making him a worthy Game 1 starter opposite Cueto.

“I don’t have any concerns with Lester, unless people put pressure on him and make him field the baseball,” an NL Central scout said. “People can run on the Cubs.”

• The focus will be on the starting pitchers during what John Lackey calls “Big Boy Games.” But the Royals created another blueprint with that 2014 AL pennant and last year’s World Series title, unleashing the power arms out of the bullpen that made it feel like Game Over.

The Cubs took on Aroldis Chapman’s off-the-field baggage and sent four players to the New York Yankees for what could essentially be a three-month rental. President of baseball operations Theo Epstein made that blockbuster trade expecting Chapman to get the final out of the World Series.

“The only way I see the chink in the armor is they get in these tie games in the seventh or eighth (inning) and they’re not sure who to go to,” the NL West scout said.

Stay tuned to see how manager Joe Maddon uses Chapman, and if the superstar closer can rack up four-out saves. But is Hector Rondon (8.53 ERA in September) at full strength after dealing with a right triceps issue? Will Pedro Strop’s slider have the necessary sharpness after missing six weeks with a torn meniscus in his left knee? How much do you trust Justin Grimm (4.10 ERA) and his curveball? Does rookie Carl Edwards Jr. (52 strikeouts in 36 innings) burst onto the scene?

[SHOP: Gear up, Cubs fans!]

“You just got to get that bridge to Chapman,” the NL Central scout said. “And you got to go deep with your starting pitching. It’s the normal recipe (in the playoffs).”

• With his arsenal of pitches, pinpoint control and unpredictable sequencing, Kyle Hendricks earned the majors’ ERA title and Saturday’s Game 2 start against ex-Cub Jeff Samardzija. Hendricks isn’t loud or flashy, but he’s been dominant this year at Wrigley Field (9-2, 1.32 ERA) and will need that cerebral approach against a Giants lineup that doesn’t give away at-bats.

The AL scout noticed that Lackey – approaching his 38th birthday and coming off a strained right shoulder – is hovering in the 88-to-92-mph range and wondered if he will have the extra velocity that helped make him one of the best big-game pitchers of his generation.  

But the biggest question mark might be Jake Arrieta, who will start the pivotal Game 3 against Bumgarner on Monday at AT&T Park. Will the Cubs watch a reigning Cy Young Award winner get back in the zone, or see the guy who couldn’t finish the sixth inning 11 times this season?

“He’s still one of the best pitchers in the game,” the NL Central scout said. “It’s just with that delivery, there’s the type of stress it puts on a body. It’s fastball command – that’s where everything goes. If you look at Lester and his fastball command – that’s what he pitches off of. Look at Hendricks – he doesn’t throw that hard, but he’s got very good fastball command and then he’s got contrast along with it. Jake just hasn’t been locating his fastball. It’s a little better, but he’s making mistakes and guys are hitting them. I (still) think he’ll do fine in the playoffs.”

• Don’t get fooled by any flashes in September and expect a huge offensive uptick from Jason Heyward in October. Any major changes would probably have to wait until the second season of that $184 million megadeal. But despite the seven homers and .631 OPS, the Cubs love the Gold Glove defense in right field and aggressive, opportunistic mentality running the bases, attributes that should play in low-scoring, one-run games. 

“He’s got mechanical issues in his swing that are very exploitable,” the NL Central scout said. “He’s going to get that fixed. (But) he’s got hot spots that you can stay away from (now). In the playoffs, you’re facing No. 1s and 2s and power closers. It’s the best of the best. If he gets hot and gets going, then that bodes well for the Cubs. If he doesn’t, it doesn’t matter, because they’ve been doing it offensively the whole year anyway, so it’s a bonus.” 

• This is Year 5 for Epstein, who recently signed a five-year extension worth in the neighborhood of $50 million after building a 103-win team. The Giants have a proven pitching-and-defense formula, but the Cubs led the majors in ERA (3.15), batting average against (.212), opponents’ OPS (.633) and defensive efficiency. 

MVP candidates Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo – “Bryzzo” combined for 71 homers and 211 RBI – anchor a deep lineup with mix-and-match parts. The Cubs didn’t have a three-game losing streak after the All-Star break.

Epstein – who says there’s no other team he’d rather have in October and knows what he’s talking about after delivering two World Series titles to Red Sox Nation – sort of sounded like Ferris Bueller while trying to make sense of any five- or seven-game series. 

“It goes pretty quick,” Epstein said. “There’s a handful of plays and bounces and breaks and moments that’ll define the series and dictate the outcome. So in those moments, there’s no favorite. There’s just competition. And that’s the way our guys approach it.”

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