1. Manufacture some defensive plays. North Carolina State has converted 54.9 percent of its third down tries this year, second in FBS only to Ohio State (57.1 percent). Opponents have converted 37.7 percent of their third down tries against Notre Dame’s defense (58th in FBS), but there’s a larger disparity in these two teams’ success rates on offense and defense. N.C. State ranks ninth in success rate, gaining necessary yardage on 50.8 percent of their plays (which sets up third-and-short plays, which they generally convert). Notre Dame’s defense, meanwhile, ranks 105th in success rate (45.1 percent). If Notre Dame can generate some negative plays — sacks, tackles for a loss — and force a few turnovers, its defense will have a fighting chance. If not, it could be a long day of the Woflpack churning out 75-yard drives against the Irish defense.
2. Generate explosive plays. The Wolfpack’s defense is susceptible to allowing explosive plays, especially on the ground (105th in rushing IsoPPP). But like most of Notre Dame’s opponents this year, they’ll probably throw an extra player in the box to force DeShone Kizer to throw in the rain. If Josh Adams, Dexter Williams and/or Tarean Folston can’t break off a few big plays, the onus will be on Equanimeous St. Brown, C.J. Sanders & Co. to get open with those kind of game-wrecking gains.
3. Hang on to the ball. Here’s a cop-out: The four or so inches of rain and 40 mile per hour wind gusts projected for Raleigh on Saturday could render both of these first two keys pointless. Notre Dame fumbled six times (losing three) and dropped a bunch of passes in its rain-soaked 24-22 loss to Clemson last year (1.14 inches of rain fell in Clemson that day). While Hurricane Matthew will largely miss impacting central North Carolina on Saturday, it still will impact playing conditions on a grass surface at Carter-Finley Stadium. Maybe what Notre Dame needs most is to have fewer weather-related mistakes than the Wolfpack to win.
Prediction: N.C. State 25, Notre Dame 23. N.C. State’s offense still is able to efficiently operate in sloppy conditions and Notre Dame makes one too many mistakes. Worth noting, I had this projected score at N.C. State 34, Notre Dame 31 before altering it to fit Saturday’s forecast.