Three keys and prediction: Notre Dame vs. Duke
1. Generate explosive offensive plays. Duke’s defense has actually been pretty good at limiting third down conversions (28.8 percent, 28th in FBS) and ranks 16th in success rate. But they’re prone to explosive plays — an area in which Notre Dame’s offense hasn’t excelled yet this year. Look for DeShone Kizer to take some shots downfield and Josh Adams/Tarean Folston to break off a big-chunk run Saturday afternoon to power the Irish offense.
2. Force Daniel Jones into passing downs. Jones, the redshirt freshman quarterback who’s replacing an injured Thomas Sirk, has been fairly efficient throwing the ball but hasn’t led a particularly explosive offense. Duke ranks 98th in passing downs success rate, and if Notre Dame can force those second/third-and-long, obvious passing situations, maybe it’ll also lead to the team’s first sack of the season. Duke ranks 85th in passing downs sack rate, allowing one sack for every 10 passing downs they encounter.
3. Lead early, cruise late. Brian Kelly talked this week about getting his team to strike early and often, as opposed to just early (as they did against Texas and Michigan State before hitting second/third-quarter lulls). Duke lost to Wake Forest by 10 and Northwestern by 11, and on paper shouldn’t be able to hang with Notre Dame even despite the Irish’s two losses thus far. If Notre Dame’s offense can come out with some early haymakers, it’ll take the pressure off its much-maligned defense and allow the Irish to roll to a win over their first mid-level opponent of the season.
Prediction: Notre Dame 42, Duke 26. Kizer will take Kelly’s sense of urgency message to heart and put together a complete game, while Notre Dame’s defense will do enough to make this a relatively stress-free afternoon.