Fangraphs' Cubs top prospects list headlined by position players, but what about pitchers?

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Theo Epstein and Co. have done quite well drafting, signing and acquiring amateur position players since arriving in Chicago in October 2011.

Epstein's regime selected Albert Almora Jr., Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber and Ian Happ in their first four drafts with the Cubs. They acquired Anthony Rizzo in January 2012 and later acquired Addison Russell in a midseason trade in 2014.

The aforementioned players have all experienced some form of on-field struggles with the Cubs, as well as off the field, in Russell's case. None of this should be discounted, but the fact is that the Cubs front office has a knack for finding position player talent.

For this reason, it should come as no surprise that the Cubs' top two prospects, according to Fangraphs, are position players in Miguel Amaya and Nico Hoerner. Fangraphs released a complete list of its Top 31 Cubs prospects on Friday.

Amaya is just 19 and Fangraphs does not project him to make his MLB debut until 2022. However, they had him ranked No. 9 on their list of the Cubs' top prospects a year ago, so his stock is clearly on the rise. 

In 116 games with Single-A South Bend in 2018, Amaya hit .256 with 12 home runs, 52 RBIs and a .752 OPS. He played in the 2018 Futures Game, though he went 0-for-3 at the plate. Fangraphs projects Amaya, a plus defender with power, to be an above-average player if his bat continues to develop.

"The physical grind of catching is likely to dilute his in-game offensive production a little bit, but unless the beating he takes back there starts to take away from his defensive abilities (which sometimes happens to young catchers), Amaya is a pretty good bet to have some kind of big league career, and, if the bat maxes out, he’ll be an above-average regular." 

Willson Contreras is arbitration-eligible through the 2022 season. If Fangraphs' projection is correct, Amaya's rise to the Cubs would align with the end of Contreras' contract. The latter is  is coming off a down 2018 season in which he had an All-Star first-half before hitting .200 in 56 games after the break.

This is not to say that Contreras' last season with the Cubs will be in 2022, as it could be after or even before then. However, if Amaya's stock continues to rise, the Cubs will have a decision to make one way or another.

Hoerner, the No. 24 overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft, is a 21-year-old shortstop that fits the mold of previous Epstein draft picks. Like Bryant, Schwarber and Happ, the Cubs drafted Hoerner following his junior season of college. 

Being drafted out of college does not guarantee Hoerner making his MLB debut quickly like Bryant, Schwarber and Happ did. For what it's worth, Fangraphs projects him to make his debut in 2020, but this could obviously change if Hoerner struggles in 2019.

But in all honesty, there's a lot to like about Hoerner, who finished the 2018 season in South Bend after leaving Stanford.

A sprained ligament in Hoerner's left elbow ended his first season after just 14 games. But before the injury, he hit a combined .327 with two home runs, a 1.021 OPS and nine walks compared to just four strikeouts with the Arizona League Cubs, Low-A Eugene and South Bend.

Fangraphs cites an altered swing to Hoerner hitting for more power in the summer and fall than he did at Stanford. His defense could move him off shortstop, but his offense is there.

"Hoerner makes routine plays at short and so long as scouts are okay with his funky throwing motion, he has a chance to stay there...Hoener’s bat and probable up the middle defensive profile mean he’s likely to be at least an average regular, and he could move quickly."

But what about pitching prospects? For as much success as the Cubs have had developing position players, they have struggled to draft and develop impactful MLB pitchers. This has been a major achillies heal of the Cubs during Epstein's tenure.

In 2018, only three pitchers drafted by the current Cubs' front office pitched for the team: Duane Underwood Jr. (drafted in 2012), Rob Zastryzny (2013), and James Norwood (2014). The three pitched just 20 2/3 innings in 2018, an astonishingly low figure.

Adbert Alzolay, No. 4 on Fangraphs' list, was seemingly on the verge of a big league promotion in 2018 before getting hurt. The 23-year-old went down with a lat injury in June after eight starts, missing the rest of the minor league season as a result. 

Before the injury, Alzolay posted a 4.76 ERA in eight starts with Triple-A Iowa. While his ERA was not pretty, Triple-A is notoriously a level dominated by hitters, and Alzolay actually got off to a tremendous start.

While the sample size is small, his 2.12 ERA, 0.82 WHIP and 14 strikeouts in three April starts (17 innings) is noteworthy. With how crowded the Cubs' starting rotation is, it wouldn't be surprising if Alzolay pitches out of the Cubs bullpen in 2019 and joins the rotation in the future. Fangraphs sees him as a reliever: 

"To profile in a rotation, he will need a better changeup than the one he has shown in the past; missing several months of action with his lat issue likely slowed that process. The combination of injury and the changeup reps lost to it make it more likely that Alzolay ends up in the bullpen, but he could be a dominant high-leverage option there."

Fangraphs also projects pitchers Justin Steele (No. 5), Keegan Thompson (No. 20), Dakota Mekkes (No. 25) and Thomas Hatch (No. 26) to make their Cubs debuts at some point in 2019. All but Mekkes are currently starters, though Fangraphs' analysis said that Hatch projects as a middle reliever.

The Top 10 Cubs prospects, according to Fangraphs, are:

  1. Miguel Amaya - catcher
  2. Nico Hoerner - shortstop
  3. Aramis Ademan - shortstop
  4. Adbert Alzolay - right-handed pitcher
  5. Justin Steele - left-handed pitcher
  6. Cole Roederer - center fielder
  7. Brailyn Marquez - left-handed pitcher
  8. Alex Lange - right-handed pitcher
  9. Zack Short - shortstop
  10. Richard Gallardo - right-handed pitcher
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